How Bubble reads a bubble

What is live, what is slow

The tape (S&P, VIX, Treasuries, gold, BTC, country ETFs, Wilshire) refreshes from the market every ten minutes. Shiller CAPE is scraped daily from Robert Shiller's series. Trailing P/E and trailing 12-month EPS come from the same source; NTM EPS is the last FactSet operating forecast, scaled when trailing EPS prints a new quarter — the denominator is not a frozen 378.7. Mag 7 caps scrape live; Mag 7 TTM earnings are quarterly-stamped. Buffett is Wilshire 5000 over last reported GDP. Housing, world debt, Berkshire cash, household allocation and FINRA margin update on their native cadence — monthly or quarterly — and are stamped with an as-of date on every card. Sector NTM growth is a weekly stamp. Credit HY/CCC is stamped: FRED does not answer from this host.

The 2007 rhyme that isn't

2007 was a household-credit bubble with a housing collateral stack. 2026 is a sovereign-and-China-corporate leverage stack with a US mega-cap valuation bubble on top. Household debt/GDP is lower. Bank capital is higher. Public debt/GDP is not. If you wait for 2007's shape, you will miss 2026's.

PEG versus CAPE

CAPE ~42x is a statement about ten years of earned profits. PEG 0.81 is a statement about this morning's long-term growth forecast. They only reconcile if the Street's 25% growth holds. On the old 13% average, PEG is 1.57 — not a gift. Buffett 237% agrees with CAPE, not with PEG.

NTM, Mag 7, sector PEG

Forward P/E is live index over NTM EPS $379— trailing GAAP $265, TTM P/E 29.7x. That GAAP-to-operating gap is mix, not a 43% growth rate. Mag 7 own 38% of S&P cap and 30% of TTM earnings; the gap is the multiple. Sector PEG = live forward P/E over weekly-stamped NTM growth. Tech near 1.2× on 18% growth is GARP. Industrials above 2.5× on 9% is not. The if-growth argument is a sector argument.

VaR is not a tail

At VIX 14.4, a lognormal 95% one-month drop is about 6.9%. Real left tails are fatter. Cheap insurance (low VIX, high SKEW) is why short-vol still pays, and why no investor-school on this map has "short vol" as a pantheon seat.

How to use this

1. Read the heat, then read the category call — not the reverse.
2. Open a KPI. Check cadence and as-of before you argue with it.
3. Pick a school on the map. Stay on one sleeve.
4. Do not convert a valuation extreme into a calendar date.