AS OF 12 NOV 2026 · refreshes daily
The crash terminal
The 52-week high is 2026-10-06. The S&P is -2.5% from that print. Today is not a peak. Deepest winter: 1929 at -86.1%. Fastest −20%: 2020 in 22 days. A peak is not called.
Crowding census · not a timer
Overall score
Crowding census 55 · Ordinary. 13 sleeves from tape, fear, VIX, Buffett, CAPE, bubble, junk, stage, breadth, NFCI, pulse, household. This is a photograph of how stretched the prints are, not a clock that a peak has arrived. A peak is not called.
Ordinary · 13 sleeves
Geometric AND · fuel × ignition · not an average
The fracture gauge
Fracture 68 · Coincident. Fuel 92 · ignition 67 · agreement 75. Geometric AND of crowding and stress, not an average. Isolated stretch scores low. A peak is not called.
Fracture
+49.0
68
Coincident
Fuel
92
2 crowding sleeves
Ignition
67
6 stress sleeves
Agreement
75
1 − |F − I|
Fuel · crowding
Geometric mean
92
Buffett
99
CAPE
87
Ignition · stress
Geometric mean
67
HY OAS
84
NFCI
44
VIX
62
Liq drain
73
Equal-weight
89
SLOOS
61
Window · fracture · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
100 × √(F × I) × √(1 − |F − I|). F is the geometric mean of crowding percentiles. I is the geometric mean of stress percentiles. Isolated stretch scores low.
Stat-arb photograph · loss aversion · not a ticket
Panic predictability
Predictability 55 · Instinct. Herd 0.66 · instinct 62 · stat-arb room 78. Humans dump the same sleeves under stress. Isolated stretch scores low. A peak is not called.
Predictability
+15.0
55
Instinct
Instinct
62
VIX · term · puts · fear
Stat-arb room
78
100 − herd percentile
Panic sleeves · percentile
Herd corr
22
VIX
62
VIX 3m − spot
53
Fear score
73
HY OAS
84
Equal-weight
89
From high
37
After the wash · monthly S&P
1m mean
+0.4%
Loss-aversion wash
4m mean
+3.5%
66% up · n=29
Overlapping, hindsight. The next print is stereotyped when instinct is on: dump beta, bid puts, bid gold. That is not a buy ticket.
| n | 1m | 4m | 4m up | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX ≥ 25 instinct · dump beta | 28 | -0.2% | +3.2% | 64% up · n=28 |
Corr → 1 herd ≥ 0.80 · 63-day | 5 | +0.5% | +1.6% | 40% up · n=5 |
VIX backwardation 3m − spot ≤ 0 | 26 | -1.2% | +1.2% | 62% up · n=26 |
Loss-aversion wash ≤ −10% from high and (VIX ≥ 20 or herd ≥ 0.55) | 29 | +0.4% | +3.5% | 66% up · n=29 |
Window · predictability · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Ink is predictability (0–100). The second line is 63-day herd correlation × 100, so 0.70 sits on 70. Geometric mean of panic percentiles: herd corr, VIX, inverted VIX term, put/call, inverted fear, HY OAS, inverted equal-weight, inverted drawdown. Isolated stretch scores low. Simultaneous instinct scores high. Stat-arb room is 100 − herd percentile. Wash forwards are monthly S&P from the drawdown tape (next month and four months), overlapping, hindsight. Not a ticket.
Sentiment
Detector · 0 is fear, 100 is greed
Fear and greed
Fear & greed is 51 — neutral. Neither stretch nor panic. A peak is not called.
Score
51
Neutral
Momentum
52
+0.4% vs 125d
RSI 14
50
49.9
VIX vs 50d
57
+3.0%
VIX level
66
17.5
VIX term
78
+1.8
Safe haven
31
-3.8 pp
Junk spread
28
3.34%
Window · detector · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Sentiment census compiling
Wilder RSI-14 · 50-day · 200-day · Bollinger %B
Overbought / oversold
S&P RSI-14 is 49.9. Neither stretch nor washout. A peak is not called.
S&P RSI
-28.6
49.9
Neutral
vs 50-day
-0.7%
S&P
vs 200-day
+3.9%
trend photograph
Bollinger %B
0.49
0 at lower band, 1 at upper
| Sleeve | RSI-14 | vs 50d | vs 200d | %B | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P | 49.9 | -0.7% | +3.9% | 0.49 | Neutral |
| Nasdaq 100 | 46.1 | -4.0% | +1.3% | 0.41 | Neutral |
| Russell | 54.3 | +0.6% | +1.4% | 0.82 | Neutral |
| Tech | 43.0 | -7.1% | +2.2% | 0.33 | Neutral |
Window · RSI · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Attention
Social tape compiling
Zero radar idle
Masters and pulse
Public prints · great-investor gauges
What the masters watch
Buffett indicator 230% of GDP (Wilshire ^W5000). Shiller CAPE 30.8. 4 of 9 master sleeves read rich or extreme. 3 extreme. These are prices and cycles, not tickets. A peak is not called.
Z.1 cousin
+162
255%
NCBEILQ027S / GDP
Shiller CAPE
-0.8
30.8
Rich
Graham gap
—
CAPE yield − AAA
Marks credit
—
BAA − AAA
Window · Buffett indicator · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Yahoo ^W5000 over FRED GDP. FRED WILL5000INDFC 404s. One index point has historically tracked a billion dollars of cap — a coincidence, not a definition. A peak is not called.
Tonight compiling
36-month Pearson · KPI sleeves
When the gauges rhyme
KPI sleeves rhyme at 0.16 over 36 months. Euphoria crowding 4 of 8. Stress crowding 0 of 8. High rhyme is the crash already being bid together, or the melt-up already being bid together. A peak is not called.
Avg KPI corr
+0.2
0.16
36 months, all pairs
Fear / VIX
—
the fear cluster
Euphoria
4 / 8
rich, greedy, tight-credit inverse
Stress
0 / 8
fear, wide, tight, drawdown
| Fear | VIX | HY OAS | NFCI | Buffett | CAPE | Drawdown | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| — | 1.00 | — | 0.35 | 0.12 | 0.06 | -0.63 | |
| — | — | 1.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| — | 0.35 | — | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.65 | -0.32 | |
| — | 0.12 | — | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.84 | -0.03 | |
| — | 0.06 | — | 0.65 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| — | -0.63 | — | -0.32 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Window · rolling KPI corr · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Crowding · Greenwood run-up · PSY SADF · click two gauges
The bubble photograph
Bubble crowding score 72 (mean percentile of the master sleeves). 4 of 9 sleeves read rich or extreme. 3 extreme. S&P 12-month +11.2% · 48th percentile. PSY SADF 1.00 (warm). Crowding is a photograph. A peak is not called.
Crowding score
72
4 of 9 rich · mean percentile
Put / call
—
Cboe ^CPC · high is puts
Fama 12-month
-21.1
+11.2%
48th percentile · 24m +26%
Drawup from 12m low
+15.7%
melt-up, not drawdown
PSY SADF
+1.3
1.00
Warm · 1.49 is 95%
CAPE − TIPS
—
Ilmanen ERP cousin · 1/CAPE − DFII10
VRP
+6.7
7.4
VIX − realized · Bollerslev
Window · Buffett vs CAPE · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Window · 12-month run-up · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Window · PSY SADF · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Scatter · last 120 overlapping months
X
Y
Last 2023-09: 172.09 × 30.81
Red is the live month on the scatter. Grey is history. Correlation from the KPIs themselves.
Magnificent Seven · vs SPY
The names that carry the tape
Leader YTD: Apple +30.8%. Laggard: Tesla -13.1%. Equal-weight Mag 7 +3.3% vs S&P +11.4%. 252-session average pairwise correlation 0.26 · Apple vs rest 0.12. 1 of 7 beat the S&P on 1y. Named names are not a ticket. A peak is not called.
Leader, YTD
+30.8%
Apple
Laggard, YTD
-13.1%
Tesla
Mag 7 vs S&P
-8.1%
equal-weight YTD
Beat the S&P, 1y
1/7
named names
Apple vs rest
-0.2
0.12
252-session Pearson
AppleAAPL
+173.7
+30.8%
YTD · vs S&P +20.5%
AmazonAMZN
+216.9
+15.3%
YTD · vs S&P -4.4%
MicrosoftMSFT
+117.3
+7.8%
YTD · vs S&P -8.5%
MetaMETA
+422.5
-4.7%
YTD · vs S&P -12.0%
AlphabetGOOGL
+232.6
-6.3%
YTD · vs S&P -10.4%
NVIDIANVDA
+1,088.8
-6.9%
YTD · vs S&P -24.2%
TeslaTSLA
+217.3
-13.1%
YTD · vs S&P -23.7%
Window · Mag 7 vs S&P, indexed 100 · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
| Name | From high | 1d | 1m | 3m | YTD | 1y | vs S&P 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIANVDA | -27.4% | +2.9% | -24.0% | -22.9% | -6.9% | -12.7% | -24.2% |
| AppleAAPL | 0.0% | +2.0% | +4.2% | +16.5% | +30.8% | +32.0% | +20.5% |
| MicrosoftMSFT | -6.2% | -2.3% | -4.1% | +4.9% | +7.8% | +3.0% | -8.5% |
| AmazonAMZN | -6.3% | -1.7% | +2.9% | +0.4% | +15.3% | +7.2% | -4.4% |
| AlphabetGOOGL | -27.1% | +2.1% | -17.1% | -15.3% | -6.3% | +1.2% | -10.4% |
| MetaMETA | -19.1% | -2.0% | -17.5% | +5.7% | -4.7% | -0.5% | -12.0% |
| TeslaTSLA | -20.2% | +2.9% | +4.2% | +15.0% | -13.1% | -12.2% | -23.7% |
| S&P 500SPY | -2.5% | +1.3% | -2.3% | -2.3% | +11.4% | +11.5% | — |
| Nasdaq 100QQQ | -9.1% | +2.3% | -7.2% | -5.7% | +12.4% | +10.8% | -0.7% |
| Russell 2000IWM | -7.2% | +0.9% | +2.3% | -6.7% | +15.0% | +16.0% | +4.5% |
| Mag 7 ETFMAGS | -7.3% | +0.5% | -7.3% | +0.6% | +4.4% | +2.1% | -9.4% |
252-session average pairwise · Mag 7
Magnificently unique
Average Mag 7 pair is 0.26. Apple vs rest is 0.12. The 252-session average is at the low of this tape — lowest since the window opened, 2014 on a full history. A peak is not called.
Mag 7 pairwise
-0.1
0.26
252-session Pearson
Apple vs rest
-0.2
0.12
mean of six pairs
Window low
0.25
Mag 7 average
Vs that low
0.01
at the low
Window · 252-session average pairwise · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- Mag 7 0.26
- Apple 0.12
Heat
Concentration idle
Industry momentum idle
Forward P/E idle
Relative tapes
Monthly · nominal · Nixon 1971 · log scale
Gold vs S&P 500
Since Nixon closed the gold window, gold is 9,254 and the S&P is 7,567 (August 1971 = 100, nominal). The live 36-month relative is gold leads. MSCI China ETF -4% vs S&P +457% over the overlapping tape. US-listed China ETF signed volume, YTD peak to trough -48.2bn — not Goldman creations. A peak is not called.
Gold, Nixon
+5103
9,254
August 1971 = 100
S&P, Nixon
+3063
7,567
August 1971 = 100
36-month relative
Gold leads
gold 36m vs S&P 36m
Gold / S&P
1.22
ratio of Nixon indexes
Window · gold vs S&P, log · 1971 = 100 · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- gold 9,254
- S&P 7,567
Warm wash is gold-leads. Quiet wash is equities-lead. 36-month relative.
MCHI · SPY · weekly · total return in the window
S&P 500 vs Chinese equities
In this window MSCI China is +15.9% and the S&P is +239.9%. Dollar volume sits on the next board as signed activity, not Goldman creations. A peak is not called.
China, window
-38.5
+15.9%
MCHI · FXI fallback
S&P, window
+148
+239.9%
SPY
Spread
-224.0 pp
China minus S&P
MCHI $ volume
-4.7
$1.68bn
latest month sum
Window · China vs S&P, total return · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- S&P +239.9%
- China +15.9%
MCHI · FXI · KWEB · ASHR · signed dollar volume
US-listed China ETF flows
Cumulative signed dollar volume in this window is -9.2bn. Peak to trough -65.7bn. Up-days count as in, down-days as out — not Goldman creations. A peak is not called.
Window cumulative
-8.0
-9.2bn
signed $ volume
Peak to trough
-65.7bn
2025-10-02 → 2026-10-28
Peak
+51.7bn
2025-10-02
Trough
-14.0bn
2026-10-28
Window · cumulative signed $bn · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Secular analog
Fidelity cousin · Shiller real total return · not a forecast
Secular bulls, the analog
This bull, March 2009 = 100, is 547. 5.47× real total return. 10-year real CAGR 9.4% vs a 7% trend (+2.4 pp). 1982–2000 and 1949–1968 are Fidelity’s completed secular bulls, on Shiller real total return. A peak is not called.
This bull
5.47×
Mar 2009 = 100 · 174m
10y real CAGR
+2.5
+9.4%
rolling
vs 7% trend
+2.4 pp
long-run cousin
Months in
174
since Mar 2009
Months from start · 100 at day one
- This bull · Mar 2009 · 547
- 1982–2000 · 1,269
- 1949–1968 · 1,148
Window · 10-year real CAGR · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Leverage
Broker-dealer assets / equity · Z.1 · not FINRA
Leverage versus 20 times
Dealer leverage is compiling.
Leverage
—
assets / equity
Vs 20×
—
under the line
2008 peak
—
Jan 2008
Z.1 credit / GDP
—
not FINRA
Window · dealer assets / equity · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- Leverage
- 20×
Window · Z.1 security credit / GDP · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- Z.1 credit / GDP
- 2000 peak
- 2021 peak
FINRA customer debit balances · monthly · 1997–now
Investor margin debt
Now $1.48tn, +31% year-over-year. 2021 peak $936bn. 2007 peak $416bn. Record $1.50tn. Dollar level rises with the tape. A peak is not called.
Margin debt
+598
$1.48tn
customer debit balances
Year-over-year
+31.4%
same month last year
Vs 2021 peak
1.58×
$936bn
% of GDP
+0.7
4.48%
nominal GDP
Window · investor margin debt · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- Now $1.48tn
- 2021 $936bn
Window · year-over-year · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Cash credits + margin credits − margin debt · FINRA · monthly
Investor credit balance
Sep 2026 print −$1,046.14bn. −$17.5bn from the prior month. Extreme Jun 2026 −$1,061.22bn. Last large surplus Aug 2008 +$205.23bn. The S&P line is the monthly close. A peak is not called.
Credit balance
-625
−$1,046.14bn
Sep 2026
Vs prior month
−$17.5bn
change in the balance
Free credit
+$434bn
cash + margin credits
Most negative
−$1,061bn
Jun 2026
Window · investor credit and the S&P · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- Credit surplus
- Credit deficit
- S&P monthly close
Owned mix
Household mix idle
Foreign holdings idle
Capex follows
Capex lag idle
IT capex idle
AI basket idle
Sector split idle
Defensive ratios idle
Withdrawals idle
Breadth idle
Advance-decline idle
Valuation, funding, oil
Earnings yield idle
Earnings level idle
Dividend yield idle
Style valuation idle
Vol of vol idle
Auctions idle
Repo idle
Foreign Treasuries idle
Deficit idle
Oil idle
If it happens
If the market happens · method, not a ticket
The crash playbook
Quiet stage. From the 52-week high the tape is orderly, the VIX slope is ordinary, labor is quiet. Quiet is not a buy ticket. If a winter comes, the median trough photograph is +18.9% in a quarter — hindsight. A peak is not called.
- Quiet
- Watch
- Stress
- Crash
Now · Quiet
Median from high, 3m
-8.8%
S&P, known highs
Median from trough, 3m
+18.9%
hindsight
Fastest −20%
22d
2020
Rule
Confirm two
never one sleeve
From 52-week high
-2.5%
First −5% is a watch, not a call
VIX slope
+1.8 · contango
Backwardation is insurance being bid. Crisis is ≤ −5.
NFCI
-0.46 · loose
Tight is a credit photograph, not a sell ticket.
Sahm
0.00 · quiet
Triggers at 0.50. A recession clock, not a peak.
RSI tape
49.9 · neutral
Overbought is fragility. Washed-out is the other side.
Junk OAS
3.34% · tight
Wide spreads are the credit fuse next to the hyperscaler still.
Equal-weight
-24.2%
RSP/SPY from its 52-week high. Narrow tape is a photograph.
Buffett indicator
230%
Market cap / GDP. A price, not a crash clock.
Shiller CAPE
30.8
Ten years of real earnings. Mean reversion is the photograph.
- 01
Confirm more than one clock
A −5% print is not a crash. Wait for a second sleeve: VIX slope, NFCI, junk OAS, or Sahm. 1987 and 2020 went through −20% in days. 1973 and 2000 took months. Speed is the tell, not the first red week.
- 02
Ballast, do not forecast
From a known high the median S&P photograph is still negative at three months. Cash and bills are ballast. 2022 is the warning that long bonds do not always hedge. Gold exists on the modern winters only. This is not a ticket.
- 03
Do not catch the first knife
Days-to-−10 and days-to-−20 sit on the speed board. Averaging at −5% is how 1987 and 2020 punished. Size down if Stress lights. Do not all-out sell on one sleeve. Do not all-out buy a bounce you cannot name as a trough.
- 04
Trough is hindsight
The five-session bounce from a trough is violent and easy to miss. The three-month trough photograph is the one that paid. Re-entry is a rule after a higher low, not a call that this is the low. A peak is not called. A trough is not called.
- 05
Scale in. Do not lever.
Month-end overlapping photographs after −10/−20/−30 are green at three and five years — that is being invested while down. The first print is colder: most first −10% crossings went further, and every first −30% print in the sample did. A slice at −10, dry powder at −20, no loan at −30. Waiting for −30% misses the ordinary corrections that never become bears. A peak is not called.
S&P 500 · Shiller total return · 1950–now · recomputed
Forward returns after corrections
Overlapping month-end total returns since 1950 — the same room as Carlson’s March 2026 card. Being invested while down, not a ticket on the first red print. A peak is not called.
Live analog is -2.6% from the 52-week high · not a correction yet. The photograph is what paid after the print, not a call that one is coming.
Average total return · overlapping months
−10% went further
65%
first print, next 3y
−30% went further
100%
every first −30% in sample
First −10% count
17
independent crossings
Overlapping −10%
294
months in the hole
Four rules from the photograph
- 01
The green card is overlapping months
Carlson’s photograph counts every month the S&P finished −10/−20/−30% from its high, then the next 1 / 3 / 5 years of total return. 2008–09 sits in that sample many times. That is “being invested while down,” not a single ticket on the first red print. This desk recomputes that room live.
- 02
The first print still has a knife
Independent crossings — first month through −10%, then wait for a new high — are rarer and colder. Most first −10% prints went further before the low. Every first −30% print in the sample did. Averaging the whole book at the first −10% is how 2000 and 2008 punished.
- 03
Scale in. Do not lever.
A slice at −10, more at −20, dry powder at −30. Waiting for −30% misses the ordinary corrections that never become bears — most −10% prints do not. A loan at −30% is how a further −20% becomes a ruin. Horizon is years. One year still loses.
- 04
Confirm a second clock
A −10% at CAPE 35 with tight junk OAS is not 2009. Credit, VIX slope, NFCI, Sahm sit on this desk for that reason. Stay invested beats selling the dip and buying the new high. Past photographs do not guarantee the next winter. A peak is not called. A trough is not called.
First −10% prints · 17 crossings
One row per independent crossing. Further is extra price decline in the next 36 months after you would have bought. Recover is months back through the buy print, price only. CAPE is Shiller PE10 that month.
| Depth | CAPE | +1y | +3y | +5y | Further | Recover | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04 | -11.1% | — | +30.9% | — | — | 0.0% | 1m |
| 2022-05 | -13.6% | 30.7 | +4.4% | +50.2% | — | -7.8% | 3m |
| 2020-03 | -19.1% | 24.8 | +50.0% | +56.9% | +130.9% | 0.0% | 1m |
| 2018-12 | -11.5% | 28.3 | +26.2% | +91.7% | +98.3% | 0.0% | 1m |
| 2008-01 | -10.5% | 24.0 | -35.6% | -0.2% | +20.0% | -45.1% | 4m |
| 2000-12 | -10.4% | 37.3 | -12.8% | -14.9% | +2.8% | -37.1% | 1m |
| 1998-09 | -11.8% | 33.5 | +30.8% | +6.3% | +7.2% | 0.0% | 1m |
| 1990-09 | -12.5% | 15.3 | +27.0% | +59.7% | +112.4% | -2.6% | 3m |
| 1987-10 | -14.9% | 15.5 | +2.5% | +21.3% | +73.7% | -14.0% | 15m |
| 1981-09 | -12.8% | 7.6 | +9.6% | +62.8% | +152.7% | -7.5% | 1m |
| 1973-06 | -11.5% | 15.8 | -11.3% | +9.6% | +15.0% | -36.0% | 1m |
| 1969-07 | -11.1% | 18.7 | -17.1% | +25.1% | -1.3% | -20.2% | 3m |
| 1966-08 | -13.6% | 19.9 | +21.1% | +28.4% | +42.2% | -4.4% | 3m |
| 1962-05 | -12.2% | 19.1 | +15.2% | +55.7% | +72.2% | -11.7% | 8m |
| 1960-10 | -10.1% | 16.6 | +30.5% | +49.5% | +98.5% | 0.0% | 1m |
| 1957-02 | -10.9% | 15.8 | -1.2% | +42.9% | +91.7% | -7.2% | 1m |
| 1953-09 | -11.1% | 11.1 | +42.6% | +129.8% | +159.9% | 0.0% | 1m |
Guide compiling
Four holding periods · Decision Desk cousin · not a ticket
Horizons
Four holding periods, not one score. Tape is ordinary. Cycle is quiet. Valuation is stretched. Buffett-cousin allowance to median -56.0%. GuruFocus publishes an 8-year expected return from these rooms. This desk shows subsequent S&P and an allowance if valuations revert. Neither is a sell ticket. A peak is not called.
Excess CAPE yield
—
yield 3.25%
CAPE-bin +10y
+6.0%
bin 30–35
Allowance to median
-56.0%
Buffett cousin to median
MarketCap/GVA
—
public cousin
Today – 5 sessions
Tape
Ordinary
-2.5%
from 52-week high
- RSI-1449.9
- VIX zoneOrdinary
- Fear51
Median 5-session from known highs -1.5%.
1 week – 3 months
Swing
Complacent
3.34%
HY OAS · tight
- NFCIloose
- HY OAS3.34%
- From high-2.5%
Median 3-month from known highs -8.8%.
3 – 12 months
Cycle
Quiet
0.4%
Chauvet–Piger
- CFNAI-MA30.03
- Sahm0.00
- U-67.9%
Median 1-year from known highs -22.9%.
3 – 10 years
Valuation
Stretched
30.8
CAPE · 30–35
- CAPE30.8
- Buffett230%
- ECY—
Rooms in this CAPE bin: subsequent 10-year median +6.0% annualized. Overlapping months, not a ticket.
Ended winters · your mix
Portfolio stress
60/40 through 2022 is why bonds are not a crash hedge. 2008 is why they sometimes are. Walk any mix. A peak is not called.
60/40, 2022 trough
-23.6%
month 8
60/40, 2008 trough
-27.1%
month 17
Valuation rhyme
2022
distance 0.23
On $100k
$76,400
2022 mix low
Paid-cousin tape compiling
JPMAM / Bloomberg still · 31 Aug 2026
Hyperscaler debt vs the Treasury
Hyperscaler plus NVIDIA issuance, including SPVs, is 68% of Treasury bond issuance in 10-year equivalents (2026). 2025 was 30%. 2019 was -7%. This is a still. The live fuse is the junk-bond spread. A peak is not called.
2026 share
68%
of UST issuance
Versus prior year
+38 pp
2025
Trough 2019
-7%
net paydown year
HY OAS
-0.5
3.34%
tight
Window · issuance still · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Live fuse · ICE BofA US High Yield OAS
ICE BofA US High Yield OAS is 3.34% — 84th percentile of the sample. Tight is the carry bid, not a peak call. A peak is not called.
HY OAS
3.34%
2026-11-09
IG OAS
0.91%
BofA corporate
HY percentile
84th
sample rank
Window · HY OAS · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Bonds and macro
FRED · inflation, nowcast, factory surveys
Macro desk
CPI YoY 3.7%. Core PCE 3.1%. GDPNow 3.5%. Inflation, nowcast, factory surveys, and the Conference Board rooms. A peak is not called.
CPI YoY
-1.2
+3.7%
headline
Core PCE
-0.7
+3.1%
Fed target 2%
GDPNow
+0.2
+3.5%
Atlanta Fed SAAR
Philly Fed
—
0 = expansion
Contributors to headline CPI · NSA
Headline versus core, Atlanta Fed versus BEA, Philly Fed zero-line, and the JPM GTM inflation-components cousin. Open the components stack.
Leverage · probability · internals · flows · the print
Clock
Next Core PCE in 13d. Sitting FF implied 4.08% · hike lean. FINRA investor margin debt $1.48tn, +31% YoY. Investor credit balance $-1046bn (2026-09). Mag 7 in SPY 33.2%. Public cousins. Surprise is vs the prior print, not the street. A peak is not called.
Next print
13d
Core PCE · 11-25
Sitting FF
4.08%
hike lean
Dealer leverage
—
assets / equity vs 20×
Mag 7 in SPY
33.2%
SPY top holdings
The calendar around the print, a FedWatch cousin, leverage versus 2000 and 2021, concentration, internals, copper against gold, money-market assets. Open the clock.
Rates compiling
1-year rise · OECD monthly · US DGS10 daily
Fastest-rising 10-year yields
Korea leads the 1-year rise at +160 bp to 4.45%. Japan +140 bp to 3.05%, a 30-year high on this OECD print. US 10-year +77 bp to 4.88% (DGS10 daily). OECD monthly last 2026-09. Public FRED cousins, not Bloomberg. A peak is not called.
🇰🇷 Fastest
+160
Korea · 4.45%
🇺🇸 US 10-year
4.88%
+77 bp · 1 year
US, 1-year
+77
from 4.11%
Risers
10/10
1-year yield up
OECD as of
2026-09
monthly last
US as of
11-09
DGS10 last
1-year change · basis points
| Sovereign | A year ago | Now | 1-year | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KoreaKR | 2.85% | 4.45% | +160 bp | 2026-09 m |
| JapanJP30y high | 1.65% | 3.05% | +140 bp | 2026-09 m |
| AustraliaAU | 4.30% | 5.28% | +99 bp | 2026-09 m |
| FranceFR | 3.52% | 4.48% | +96 bp | 2026-09 m |
| GreeceGR | 3.39% | 4.23% | +84 bp | 2026-09 m |
| United StatesUS | 4.11% | 4.88% | +77 bp | 2026-11-09 |
| PortugalPT | 3.13% | 3.85% | +72 bp | 2026-09 m |
| CanadaCA | 3.22% | 3.88% | +66 bp | 2026-09 m |
| SpainES | 3.27% | 3.92% | +66 bp | 2026-09 m |
| United KingdomUK | 4.69% | 5.24% | +55 bp | 2026-09 m |
FRED DGS10 daily for the United States. OECD IRLTLT01 monthly 10-year for Korea, Japan, Australia, France, Greece, Italy, Germany, Portugal, Canada, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Mexico, New Zealand, Switzerland. Singapore and Brazil OECD 10-year 404. Not Bloomberg. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW
Credit compiling
FX compiling
Liquidity compiling
The rest of the desk · public cousins
Fuse
MOVE 92. SPY GEX +1.6bn. Next FOMC Dec 8–9 SEP, 26d. ADS 0.04. Public cousins, not the licensed brands. A peak is not called.
MOVE
+14.5
92
Yahoo ^MOVE
SPY GEX
+1.6bn
front expiry, not SpotGamma
Next FOMC
26d
Dec 8–9 · SEP
CRE prices
—
BIS annualized, not delinquency
MOVE, dealer gamma, the Fed calendar, CRE as a price print, the ISM cousin, a public LEI, desk surprise, 13F holder %, private credit, China impulse, G4 rates. Open the fuse desk.
US debt / GDP compiling
OECD monthly 10-year · G20 prints on FRED
G20 government bond yields
US 10-year is 4.88%. Bund 3.47%. JGB 3.05%. Italy−Germany +0.52 pp. OECD monthly 10-year benchmarks. China/India/Brazil only if FRED has the print. A peak is not called.
🇺🇸 US 10-year
+2.5
4.88%
2026-11
🇩🇪 Germany
+3.3
3.47%
Bund
🇯🇵 Japan
+3.0
3.05%
JGB
Italy − Germany
0.52 pp
euro stress
US − Germany
1.41 pp
transatlantic
US, window
+2.51 pp
change in view
Window · G20 10-year · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
| Sovereign | 10-year | 1-year | vs US | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United StatesUS | 4.88% | +0.86 | +0.00 | 2026-11 |
| United KingdomUK | 5.24% | +0.55 | +0.36 | 2026-09 |
| GermanyDE | 3.47% | +0.78 | -1.41 | 2026-09 |
| JapanJP | 3.05% | +1.40 | -1.83 | 2026-09 |
| FranceFR | 4.48% | +0.96 | -0.40 | 2026-09 |
| ItalyIT | 3.99% | +0.45 | -0.89 | 2026-08 |
| CanadaCA | 3.88% | +0.66 | -1.00 | 2026-09 |
| AustraliaAU | 5.28% | +0.99 | +0.40 | 2026-09 |
| KoreaKR | 4.45% | +1.60 | -0.43 | 2026-09 |
| MexicoMX | 9.35% | +0.56 | +4.47 | 2026-09 |
| South AfricaZA | 8.95% | -0.93 | +4.07 | 2026-09 |
| Euro areaEU | 3.22% | +0.13 | -1.66 | 2026-01 |
FRED · real yield, dollar, gold, oil, funds, labor
The crash-desk extras
Real yield, dollar, gold, oil, funds, jobless — the crash desk extras. A peak is not called.
Broad dollar
—
DTWEXBGS
Gold
+2099
$3,979
GC=F monthly
WTI
—
DCOILWTICO
Fed funds
—
FEDFUNDS
Jobless
—
UNRATE
Breakeven
—
T10YIE
30y mortgage
—
MORTGAGE30US
Window · macro tapes · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Gold
$3,979
+$2,808 in window
Labor
FRED · CPS on layoff · temp help · JOLTS · 1990–now
US layoff trends
CPS on layoff 3,166k. Year-over-year -9.2%. Month-over-month -1.1%. Temp help YoY +3.0%. FRED from 1990. JOLTS from Dec 2000. Temp help turns first. A peak is not called.
Month / month
+0.3
-1.1%
CPS
Year / year
+50.7
-9.2%
Quiet
Temp help, YoY
-19.3
+3.0%
turns first
JOLTS layoffs
+306
1,641k
YoY -9.6%
Claims, YoY
+59.2
-14.1%
194,750
Hours, mfg
—
AWHMAN
JOLTS openings
-2.1
4.5%
U-3 4.1%
JOLTS quits
-0.7
2.1%
JTSQUR
Window · % YoY · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Year × month · CPS on layoff, YoY
Red is more people on layoff than a year earlier. Green is fewer. Window clips the years.
Month-over-month · CPS
Claims, four-week, year-over-year
Temp help payrolls, year-over-year
TEMPHELPS. Falling temp help is the lead, not the layoff print.
Manufacturing hours
AWHMAN. Hours are cut before heads.
Beveridge · openings vs unemployment
Now 2026-09 · U-3 4.2% · openings 4.5%. Tight is up and left.
Quits vs layoff rate · voluntary against forced
- Quits rate
- Layoffs / payrolls
JOLTS · layoffs vs job openings (rate)
- JOLTS layoffs (k)
- Openings rate
On layoff vs permanent job losers
- On layoff
- Not on layoff
Initial vs continued claims
- Initial, 4-week
- Continued
| Photograph | On layoff | YoY | Claims YoY | Temp YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20012001-03 | 3,053k | +21.1% | +41.2% | -6.1% |
| 20082008-12 | 6,653k | +71.9% | +61.5% | -19.3% |
| COVID2020-04 | 20,644k | +646.6% | +2,123.2% | -34.0% |
| Now2026-10 | 3,166k | -9.2% | -14.1% | +3.0% |
FRED LNS13023621 job losers on layoff, LNS13023705 not on layoff, JTSLDL / JTSQUR / JTSJOR, PAYEMS, IC4WSA, CCSA, TEMPHELPS, AWHMAN, UNRATE. Monthly last. 1990–now. JOLTS rate is 100 × JTSLDL / PAYEMS.
FRED · CFNAI · Chauvet–Piger · Hamilton · OECD CLI · TCU · TDSP · KCFSI · NY Fed curve · 1960–now
US recession clock
CFNAI-MA3 0.03. Chauvet–Piger recession probability 0.4%. U-6 7.9% vs U-3 4.1%. Credit-card delinquency 2.85%. Chicago Fed −0.7 is the recession photograph. Hamilton 67 is his GDP cutoff. This is not a crash date. A peak is not called.
CFNAI
0.03
Chauvet
0.4%
Hamilton
—
NY Fed
—
OECD CLI
—
Capacity
—
STLFSI
—
KCFSI
—
Debt svc
—
Cards
2.85%
Permits
—
IP YoY
—
CFNAI-MA3
-0.2
0.03
recession ≤ −0.7
Recession prob.
+0.3
0.4%
Chauvet–Piger
Hamilton
—
GDP index · 67 cutoff
STLFSI4
—
St. Louis stress · 0 avg
U-6
-1.3
7.9%
U-3 4.1%
Card delinquency
-1.7
2.85%
commercial banks
CRE delinquency
-7.1
1.53%
commercial real estate
Permits YoY
—
housing lead
OECD CLI
—
100 = trend
Capacity
—
total industry
Debt service
—
household · TDSP
NY Fed curve
—
Estrella–Mishkin
KCFSI
—
Kansas City stress
Window · activity and probability · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
CFNAI, three-month average
Chauvet–Piger recession probability
U-3 vs U-6
- U-3
- U-6
Delinquency · cards · consumer · CRE
- Credit cards
- Consumer
- CRE
Hamilton GDP recession index
St. Louis vs Kansas City financial stress
- St. Louis
- Kansas City
OECD CLI · 100 is trend
NY Fed yield-curve recession probability
Capacity utilization
Household debt service · % of disposable income
Leading cousins · year-over-year
Permits YoY
—
Industrial production YoY
—
Real income ex transfers YoY
+0.5%
Real retail YoY
—
Factory orders YoY
—
Housing starts YoY
—
Weekly Economic Index · NY Fed
Subsequent S&P after CAPE bins
Overlapping monthly medians, not independent observations. Hussman and GuruFocus publish 10-year expected returns from this room. This is the photograph of what the S&P did after those rooms, not a ticket. Current bin 30–35.
| CAPE | n | +1y | +3y ann. | +10y ann. | Max 3y DD | Down 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 16 | 807 | +9.7% | +7.3% | +7.5% | -11.4% | 33% |
| 16–20 | 397 | +4.5% | +2.7% | +4.0% | -14.4% | 42% |
| 20–25 | 261 | +6.8% | +6.7% | +4.3% | -15.4% | 32% |
| 25–30 | 145 | +9.5% | +8.9% | +6.4% | -8.5% | 26% |
| 30–35now | 56 | +7.9% | +10.4% | +6.0% | -9.4% | 30% |
| 35+ | 47 | -6.0% | -4.1% | -1.7% | -20.3% | 55% |
FRED CFNAIMA3, RECPROUSM156N (Chauvet–Piger), USREC, UNRATE, U6RATE, DRCCLACBS, DRCLACBS, DRCRELEXFACBS, PERMIT, INDPRO, W875RX1, RRSFS, AMTMNO, WEI, JHGDPBRINDX (Hamilton), STLFSI4, USALOLITOAASTSAM (OECD CLI), TCU, TDSP, KCFSI, HOUST. S&P, dividends, CPI and PE10 from datasets/s-and-p-500 (Shiller; PE10 ≤ 0 skipped; last non-zero dividend carried). Secular analog is real total return (price plus dividends, deflated by Shiller CPI) rebased at March 2009, August 1982 and June 1949 — Fidelity’s completed-bull cousin, not a forecast. NY Fed yield-curve probability is Estrella–Mishkin 1998 from T10Y3M on the crash study, computed on the desk. Dip board: month-end overlapping total return after price drawdowns of −10/−20/−30 from a running high, 1950–now, plus first-crossing events. Carlson Mar 2026 card is the cousin photograph, not this desk’s invention. USSLIND was discontinued in 2020 and is not used. ISM NAPM 404s.
FRED SAHMREALTIME · ICSA
The labor clock
Sahm is 0.00. The rule triggers at 0.50. Initial claims, 4-week average, 194,750. A trigger is a recession clock, not a crash call. A peak is not called.
Sahm
+0.2
0.00
triggers at 0.50
Claims, 4w
-33000
194,750
last 189,000
State
quiet
recession clock
As of
2026-10-01
Window · labor · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Sahm rule
Initial claims
FRED DRTSCIS · quarterly
Banks tightening C&I loans
Net share of banks tightening C&I loans is 5.1%. Tightening is a credit photograph, not a sell ticket. A peak is not called.
Net tightening
+7.0
5.1%
2026-10-01
Regime
neutral
large and medium firms
Read
Photograph
not a sell ticket
Window · SLOOS · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
The tape
Same month from a known high · price, VIX, OAS
Which winter does this rhyme with
At 1.2 months from the 52-week high every quiet tape still looks like every other. 1973–74 scores 89 of 100 only because the first weeks have not diverged. Wait for a second clock. A peak is not called.
Months from high
1.2
2026-10-06
Live analog
97.5
-2.6% from high
Closest winter
1973–74
89 of 100
That winter, −20%
343d
speed board
| Winter | Price then | vs live | Rhyme | Final depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973–74 | 95.7 | 1.8 | 89 | -48.0% |
| 1987 | 95.5 | 2.0 | 88 | -33.5% |
| 2007–09 | 92.7 | 4.8 | 76 | -56.8% |
| 1929 | 90.6 | 6.9 | 57 | -86.1% |
| 2022 | 93.5 | 4.0 | 46 | -25.4% |
| 2000–02 | 65.8 | 31.7 | 0 | -77.4% |
| 2020 | 72.3 | 25.2 | 0 | -33.9% |
Indexed to 100 at a known high
Seven winters, one live analog
Historical red is hindsight after a known high. The dashed line starts at the 52-week high, not a peak of the current year. A peak is not called.
- 1929
- 1973–74
- 1987
- 2000–02
- 2007–09
- 2020
- 2022
- Live · 52-week high
Hindsight clocks
Peak, trough, recover
| Winter | High | Trough | Depth | Months down | Months to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1929S&P | 1929-09-02 | 1932-07-04 | -86.1% | 34.0 | 300.6 |
| 1973–74S&P | 1973-01-01 | 1974-09-30 | -48.0% | 20.9 | 90.4 |
| 1987S&P | 1987-08-25 | 1987-12-04 | -33.5% | 3.3 | 23.0 |
| 2000–02Nasdaq | 2000-03-06 | 2002-09-30 | -77.4% | 30.8 | 181.5 |
| 2007–09S&P | 2007-10-09 | 2009-03-09 | -56.8% | 17.0 | 65.6 |
| 2020S&P | 2020-02-19 | 2020-03-23 | -33.9% | 1.1 | 5.9 |
| 2022S&P | 2022-01-03 | 2022-10-12 | -25.4% | 9.3 | 24.5 |
2000 overlay is Nasdaq. Aftermath below uses the S&P high. Recover is first close back through the high.
Sessions, not months
How fast −10% and −20% arrived
1987 and 2020 are speed crashes. 1973 and 2000 are depth. Days are calendar days from the known high to the first close through the mark.
| Winter | Days to −10% | Days to −20% |
|---|---|---|
| 1929 | 49 | 56 |
| 1973–74 | 112 | 343 |
| 1987 | 51 | 55 |
| 2000–02 | 28 | 35 |
| 2007–09 | 48 | 274 |
| 2020 | 8 | 22 |
| 2022 | 50 | 161 |
If a crash already happened
What stocks, gold, and bonds did next
From a known high, the median S&P print was -1.5% in a week, -8.8% in a quarter, -22.9% in a year. From the trough, about +10.4% in a week and +18.9% in a quarter. The trough is not called in real time. Gold and TLT only exist on the modern winters. This is not what to do.
S&P 5d
-1.5%
median
S&P 3m
-8.8%
median
S&P 1y
-22.9%
median
Gold 1y
+10.4%
GC=F from 2000-08
| Known high | S&P | Gold | TLT | 10y yield | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d | 3m | 1y | 5d | 3m | 1y | 5d | 3m | 1y | 5d | 3m | 1y | |
| Median photograph | -1.5% | -8.8% | -22.9% | +2.0% | +7.1% | +10.4% | -0.6% | +7.3% | +0.2% | +1 bp | +8 bp | +16 bp |
| 19291929-09-16 | -1.5% | -33.1% | -33.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1973–741973-01-11 | -0.6% | -5.7% | -21.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | +3 bp | +23 bp | +58 bp |
| 19871987-08-25 | -1.1% | -27.1% | -22.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | +32 bp | +16 bp | +61 bp |
| 2000–022000-03-24 | -2.6% | -5.6% | -25.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | -17 bp | -1 bp | -135 bp |
| 2007–092007-10-09 | -0.2% | -8.8% | -35.8% | +2.7% | +19.1% | +22.5% | -0.6% | +7.3% | +12.1% | -1 bp | -81 bp | -95 bp |
| 20202020-02-19 | -7.2% | -11.8% | +16.6% | +2.0% | +7.0% | +10.4% | +3.8% | +12.8% | +0.2% | -23 bp | -88 bp | -27 bp |
| 20222022-01-03 | -2.6% | -5.7% | -20.3% | -0.1% | +7.1% | +2.6% | -1.2% | -11.0% | -29.7% | +15 bp | +79 bp | +216 bp |
Calendar and duration
Yahoo ^GSPC · 18 completed cycles · 18 midterm years
The presidential calendar
2026 is a midterm year on the four-year presidential calendar. In completed midterm years, September averaged -2.00% (7 up / 11 down). This cycle sits 44.9 points above the composite at the last overlapping week. The calendar is a photograph of past Septembers, not a six-week timer. A peak is not called.
This year
2026
midterm
Vs composite
+7.1
this midterm year
Midterm Sep
-2.0%
7 up / 11 down
Sample
18
completed midterm years
- Composite of completed years, indexed 100 at January
- 2026 live · not a peak call
Month photograph · tap a cell
Sep in the midterm sample: average -2.0%, 7 up / 11 down across 18 years. September is often the weakest midterm month in this sample. That is not a six-week timer.
Forward from this calendar day in prior midterm years (weekly bars)
+1 week
+0.1%
9/18 up
+1 month
+0.9%
12/18 up
+3 months
+7.5%
17/18 up
+6 months
+12.7%
18/18 up
FRED DGS10 · Yahoo TLT weekly
When the 10-year jumps, duration marks down
The 10-year is 4.88%. TLT’s last week was 0.00%. TLT is -10.9% from its 52-week high. Bloomberg’s Treasury-ETF flow as % of NAV is not a public print. This is duration: yield up, long bond price down. Not an outflow tape. A peak is not called.
10-year
+3.6
4.88%
2026-11-11
TLT, last week
0.0%
price, not flow
TLT from 52w high
-10.9%
Stress weeks
14
yield peaks / ugly TLT weeks
Window · duration · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
TLT weekly price change
US 10-year yield
- TLT weekly price change — not ETF flow
- US 10-year yield (FRED DGS10)
- Stress week — yield local high or TLT ≤ −2.4%
| Week | 10-year | TLT week | Why it is marked |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-04-01 | 3.91% | -6.6% | TLT week |
| 2009-04-01 | 2.68% | -7.2% | TLT week |
| 2009-12-01 | 3.28% | -7.0% | TLT week |
| 2013-05-01 | 1.66% | -7.0% | TLT week |
| 2015-02-01 | 1.68% | -6.3% | TLT week |
| 2016-11-01 | 1.83% | -8.4% | TLT week |
| 2021-02-01 | 1.09% | -5.8% | TLT week |
| 2022-04-01 | 2.39% | -9.6% | TLT week |
| 2022-09-01 | 3.26% | -8.4% | TLT week |
| 2022-10-01 | 3.83% | -6.2% | TLT week |
| 2023-09-01 | 4.18% | -8.2% | TLT week |
| 2023-10-01 | 4.69% | -5.8% | TLT week |
| 2024-04-01 | 4.33% | -6.8% | TLT week |
| 2024-12-01 | 4.19% | -7.1% | TLT week |
Conditions
Chicago Fed · weekly since 1971
National Financial Conditions
NFCI is -0.46 — loose, 44th percentile of the weekly sample since 1971. Tight is not a sell ticket. Looser is not a buy. A peak is not called.
NFCI
+0.1
-0.46
2026-10-30
Percentile
44th
loosest → tightest
Regime
loose
0 ≈ average
Sample
494
weekly pins + stride
Window · NFCI · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Around the known high
Monthly last. The weekly tape above is the source of truth. Month 0 is the high.
1973–74
Oil and the Nifty
1987
Black Monday
2000–02
The Nasdaq winter
2007–09
The housing clock
2020
Sixteen sessions
2022
The rate shock
Cboe VIX · 15 / 25 / 35 bands · not a ticket
VIX zones
The street sheet says buy above 35 and sell below 15. Every spike above 35 was a buying opportunity only after the low was named. Every print below 15 looks like complacency in hindsight. Time in each band is a census. Forward S&P after first touch is a photograph of ended tapes. A peak is not called.
Zone
Ordinary
VIX 15–25
Quiet share
+32%
months below 15
Wash visits
7
first touches of 35+
S&P after 35+
—
median +3m, first touch
S&P after <15
-0.9%
median +3m, first dip
Window · VIX spot · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Dashed: 15 · 25 · 35. Dots: sessions at 35+.Today · VIX 17.5 · Ordinary
| Band | Share | Visits | Last touch | S&P +3m | S&P +12m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4% | 7 | 2020-10 | — | — | |
| +14% | 31 | 2026-03 | -0.0%n=5 | +1.0% | |
| +50% | 72 | 2026-09 | -1.6%n=10 | +10.8% | |
| +32% | 46 | 2026-08 | -0.9%n=5 | +13.4% |
Share is monthly VIX when that tape exists, else the windowed spot series. Forward returns need overlapping SPY months, so n is smaller than visits. A wash is usually named after the low.
Cboe · VIX, VIX3M, VIX9D, VVIX
VIX term structure
The 3-month sits 1.8 over spot. That is the ordinary slope, not a peak call.
VIX
+5.0
17.5
2026-11-11
VIX3M
+3.6
19.2
93-day
Spread
-1.5
1.8
ordinary contango
VIX9D
16.0
front
VVIX
91
vol of vol
Inverted, 1y
+19%
share of sessions
Anatomy · Now · 2020-03-16 · 2008-10-24
Window · 3-month minus spot · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Slope after the known high
Months from the high. Negative is the front being bid.
2007–09
2020
2022
Dispersion
Short book
Short flow
VIX vs Shiller CAPE · monthly
The regime map
Now sits in rich and quiet. X is VIX. Y is Shiller CAPE. High CAPE and low VIX is the complacent-rich room — 2000, late 2021. High VIX and falling CAPE is 2008 and 2020. A peak is not called.
Quadrant
Rich and quiet
photograph
Months
83
window
Window · regime · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
- History
- Now
- Known months
HY OAS vs S&P drawdown · the 2007 tell
Does credit lead the tape
Tight junk and a shallow tape. Carry is bid. Not a timer. High-yield OAS on the vertical, S&P drawdown on the horizontal. A peak is not called.
Now
2026-11
month
Rule
Credit first
2007, not 1987
Window · OAS vs drawdown · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Scatter · OAS vs drawdown
63 trading days · daily log returns
When risk rhymes
Average 63-day risk correlation is 0.66. Diversifiers still rhyme less than the crash years.
Avg risk corr
-0.0
0.66
15 pairs, TLT/GLD out
SPY / TLT
+0.1
0.19
the diversifier
Window
63d
Pearson
SPY / QQQ
0.94
same tape
| S&P | Nasdaq 100 | Russell | Tech | High yield | Emerging | Long bonds | Gold | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.97 | 0.49 | 0.88 | -0.07 | 0.33 |
| Russell | 0.85 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| Tech | 0.87 | 0.97 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.84 | -0.13 | 0.26 |
| High yield | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.59 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| Emerging | 0.81 | 0.88 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.42 | 1.00 | -0.03 | 0.39 |
| Long bonds | 0.11 | -0.07 | 0.25 | -0.13 | 0.56 | -0.03 | 1.00 | 0.28 |
| Gold | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 1.00 |
S&P
SPY
760
+11.5% · vol 15%
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
690
+10.8% · vol 24%
Russell
IWM
283
+16.0% · vol 18%
Tech
XLK
174
+18.0% · vol 31%
High yield
HYG
77.35
-4.0% · vol 5%
Emerging
EEM
62.04
+11.8% · vol 25%
Long bonds
TLT
80.92
-9.6% · vol 11%
Gold
GLD
365
-3.5% · vol 25%
Window · rolling corr · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
36-month Pearson · monthly last · country ETFs
Gold, bitcoin, and the world tape
36-month S&P/gold correlation is 0.07. S&P/bitcoin is 0.48 — a risk sleeve, not ballast. 2020 gold held while bitcoin sold with the tape, then ripped. 2022 both rhymed with Nasdaq. Haven is a photograph after the winter, not a ticket. Country tapes are iShares ETFs. A peak is not called.
S&P / gold
-0.2
0.07
36-month
S&P / bitcoin
-0.1
0.49
risk sleeve
Gold, 1y
-5.9%
GLD
Bitcoin, 1y
-18.4%
BTC-USD
Window · S&P vs gold and bitcoin · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Months from known high · 2020 and 2022 · indexed 100
Dashed is bitcoin. Gold held in 2020; both sold with Nasdaq in 2022. Haven is not automatic.
Any two tapes
Pick a pair. Scatter is monthly log returns, last 120 months. Rolling is 36-month Pearson.
0.49now
Window · selected pair · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Monthly log returns · percent
| S&P | Japan | Germany | United Kingdom | China | Brazil | Emerging | Nasdaq 100 | Russell | Tech | High yield | Long bonds | Gold | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.59 | 0.88 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Japan | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.18 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Germany | 0.40 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.49 | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| United Kingdom | 0.25 | 0.65 | 0.81 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 0.30 | -0.02 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.07 |
| China | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.22 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.06 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Brazil | 0.08 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.18 | -0.06 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.48 | -0.06 |
| Emerging | 0.59 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 0.28 | 0.50 | 0.09 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.88 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.59 | 0.97 | 0.41 | 0.15 | -0.02 | 0.46 |
| Russell | 0.78 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.30 | -0.04 | 0.18 | 0.49 | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.75 | 0.52 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Tech | 0.80 | 0.44 | 0.19 | -0.02 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.64 | 0.97 | 0.49 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.11 | -0.09 | 0.42 |
| High yield | 0.66 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.75 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| Long bonds | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 0.52 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.20 | -0.12 |
| Gold | 0.07 | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 0.50 | -0.02 | 0.08 | -0.09 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 1.00 | -0.06 |
| Bitcoin | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 0.21 | -0.06 | 0.09 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 0.16 | -0.12 | -0.06 | 1.00 |
S&P
SPY
760
+11.2%
Japan
EWJ
92.12
+11.0%
Germany
EWG
43.02
+5.1%
United Kingdom
EWU
47.82
+10.8%
China
FXI
33.92
-14.2%
Brazil
EWZ
32.44
-3.5%
Emerging
EEM
62.04
+14.2%
Nasdaq 100
QQQ
690
+11.5%
Russell
IWM
283
+13.8%
Tech
XLK
174
+21.8%
High yield
HYG
77.35
-4.5%
Long bonds
TLT
80.92
-10.3%
Gold
GLD
365
-5.9%
Bitcoin
BTC-USD
73,736
-18.4%
Country ETFs · indexed 100 · window
Who is carrying the tape
Leader, 1y: Emerging +14.2%. Laggard: China -14.2%. S&P +11.2%. Indexed to 100 at the first print in the window. Country ETFs are iShares. A peak is not called.
Leader, 1y
+14.2%
Emerging
Laggard, 1y
-14.2%
China
S&P, 1y
+11.2%
SPY
Gold, 1y
-5.9%
GLD
Window · country relative · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
S&P
+66.8
Japan
+85.7
Germany
+73.9
United Kingdom
+57.6
China
-9.1
Brazil
+2.4
Emerging
+27.0
Gold
+120.6
S&P from 1970, monthly last
Drawdown and recovery census
Months below the running high. Recovery is hindsight: the high is only known after it is taken out. This is a census of ended tapes, not a forecast.
Deepest since 1970
-52.9%
Monthly last
−20% episodes
12
18 trips through −10%
Median recover
66 mo
7 known highs that healed
Window · drawdown · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
FRED T10Y2Y · T10Y3M
The 2s10s photograph
The 10-year minus 2-year is 0.25 pp. 10-year minus 3-month is compiling. Inversion is a recession clock with a lag, not a crash timer. 3m10s is the 2022 60/40 fuse’s other wire. A peak is not called.
2s10s
-0.9
0.25 pp
10y − 2y
3m10s
—
10y − 3m
Window · 2s10s · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
WALCL − WTREGEN − RRPONTSYD
Fed net liquidity
Fed net liquidity is $5.79 T (SOMA − TGA − overnight RRP). Plumbing, not a buy ticket. A peak is not called.
Net liquidity
-0.5
$5.79 T
2026-11-04
Identity
SOMA − TGA − RRP
trillions
Read
Plumbing
not a buy ticket
Window · net liquidity · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
RSP / SPY · weekly, indexed 100
Equal-weight versus the tape
Equal-weight vs cap-weight is -24.2 from its 52-week high of the ratio. A few names are carrying the tape. That is not a timer.
Indexed
+0.5
75.8
2026-11-11
From 52w high
-24.2
of the ratio
Raw RSP/SPY
0.293
not a timer
Window · breadth · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Daily roll
Daily tape compiling
Yahoo ^GSPC crash windows and 1952–now weekly for the presidential cycle. Aftermath 2000 is the S&P. Gold GC=F. Bitcoin BTC-USD. Country ETFs EWJ/EWG/EWU/FXI/EWZ. TLT weekly vs FRED DGS10. VIX3M chunked. FRED NFCI, T10Y2Y, VIXCLS, Sahm, ICSA, SLOOS, WALCL−TGA−RRP, HY/IG OAS, OECD G20 10-year, DFII10, DTWEXBGS, WTI, FEDFUNDS, UNRATE, T10YIE, MORTGAGE30US, T10Y3M. Yahoo ^W5000 over GDP is the Buffett photograph (FRED WILL5000INDFC 404s). Z.1 NCBEILQ027S is the nonfinancial cousin, labeled separately — never spliced. AAA/BAA, CPATAX, GFDEGDQ188S, household debt, household equity share, corporate q, copper. UMCSENT, Case-Shiller, M2. Shiller PE10 via datasets/s-and-p-500. Cboe SKEW and put/call. RSP/SPY. 63-day Pearson. KPI pulse is 36-month Pearson of the gauges. World corr is 36-month Pearson of monthly country/haven tapes. Fear & greed is a 7-sleeve reconstruction, not CNN. Fracture is the geometric AND of crowding fuel and stress ignition, not an average. Panic predictability is the geometric mean of herd corr, VIX, inverted term, put/call, inverted fear, HY OAS, inverted equal-weight, inverted drawdown. Wash forwards are monthly S&P from the drawdown tape (next month and four months), overlapping, hindsight. Hyperscaler still is JPMAM/Bloomberg 31 Aug 2026, digitized. Known highs are hindsight. A peak is not called. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW