Bubble · 2026 scoreboard
Every bubble lens, one grid, refreshed every day.
CAPE, Buffett, PEG, housing, credit, leverage — and the sleeves that are actually open.
What broke
Fire lines
4 hot · 5 pinned
This ETF vs the tape
Pick a sleeve. See it against the line.
12 live
S&P 500 ETF
769.35
+0.43% d+19.3% yhold
US large · CAPE
10y real 2.37%+0.1 vs TIPS
Composite · every lens
Bubble watch
+0.3 vs yesterday
Valuation extreme is not a crash timer. It is a map of where not to be greedy.
What moved
KPI mosaic
31 gauges across 10 lenses
Category call— every lens on one grid
Valuation extreme is not a crash timer
- US mega-cap / S&P (CAPE, Buffett)
Yes — valuation
CAPE 42 · Buffett 237% · GMO 7yr real −2%
- Forward P/E / Street PEG
Cheap only if 25%
Fwd P/E 20.4 · NTM $379 · PEG 0.8 on 25% g
- Quality / owner earnings
Index yes, median no
S&P ROE 22% · Mag 7 38% cap / 30% earn
- Intl / Japan / EM deep value
The open sleeve
GMO real: EM +4.4 · Japan +3.0 · IP small value +2.0
- Cash / Buffett optionality
Still a position
BRK cash ~$365B · Abel started deploying Q2 · still 1/3 of BRK
- Market leverage (margin / short-vol)
Yes — locally
FINRA ~$1.05T · VIX sub-15 · short-vol still pays until it does not
- China corporates / property
Yes — late stage
Private NF credit 201% of GDP · already deflating · KWEB −40% from high
- US housing
Stretched, not 2006
7.1x income · +2.1 sigma vs long history · real prices 1.3 months
- Quality HY / BB
Complacent
HY OAS 2.7% · BB 1.5% · 2017-tight
- CCC / lowest quality
Stressing
CCC OAS 10.4% · +29% YoY · not a 2010 spike
- US / world sovereign
Over-indebted
Gov is now the largest borrower on earth · 95% GDP · US debt $40T
- US households / banks
Not a bubble
HH 68% of GDP · bank CET1 at multi-decade highs
The endowment choice
Expected 10-year real vs TIPS
Hurdle 2.32%
VWO EM +2.1 vs TIPS. VOO is 1/CAPE — the decade real if the multiple does not expand. If it cannot beat TIPS, the default book is the hurdle, not the index.
| ETF | Sleeve | 10y real | vs TIPS | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VOO | US large | 2.37% | +0.1 | hold |
| IWM | US small | 3.08% | +0.8 | watch |
| VXUS | Intl ex-US | 2.00% | -0.3 | avoid |
| VWO | EM | 4.40% | +2.1 | own |
| EWJ | Japan | 3.00% | +0.7 | watch |
| TLT | US long bond | 2.81% | +0.5 | watch |
| SCHP | TIPS | 2.32% | — | hold |
- VOO · 1 / Shiller CAPE. The decade real if the multiple does not expand.
- IWM · US CAPE scaled by IWM/SPY vs its long mean. Cheapness is the kicker.
- VXUS · GMO 7yr intl large. Not a Shiller identity — a forecast on the open sleeve.
- VWO · GMO 7yr EM value. Templeton's maximum-pessimism sleeve vs TIPS.
- EWJ · GMO 7yr Japan deep value. The hated developed market.
- TLT · 30Y − 2.4% inflation. Duration is the other risk. Not TIPS.
If the analog completes
CAPE mean-reverts. Price follows. Not a timer.
Recoup 27y
Years of today's CAPE yield to heal a trip to 22. Expected 10-year real is the decade if the multiple does not move. This is the decade if it does.
Why PEG and CAPE disagree
PEG = Forward P/E / Street long-term growth
NTM EPS $379 · trailing GAAP $265 · TTM P/E 29.7x
20.4 / 25% = 0.81← the Daily Shot red dot
20.4 / 13% = 1.57← if growth is the old average
CAPE uses 10y real earnings. PEG uses NTM EPS $379 (trailing GAAP $265). Do not read the GAAP-to-operating gap as growth.
Parametric VaR
VIX 14.41-month 95%
~6.9%
1-month 99%
~9.7%
1-year 95%
~23.7%
Normal approx. Calm vol is why short-vol still pays — and why it will pay until it does not.
Earnings insight
Forward 12M P/E · sector level
Live tape · 2026-08-29
Industrials +3.2 vs its 5-year average. Info. Technology -3.9. Comm. PEG 1.12 on 15.8% NTM growth. Staples PEG 3.98 — the if-growth argument is a sector argument.
NTM EPS growth · sector
Weekly stamp · 2026-08-28
| Sector | Fwd P/E | 5-yr avg | 10-yr avg | vs 5-yr | NTM g | PEG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials | 24.1 | 20.9 | 19.9 | +3.2 | 9.4% | 2.56 |
| Consumer Disc. | 23.6 | 26.2 | 25.5 | -2.6 | 12.2% | 1.93 |
| Info. Technology | 21.8 | 25.7 | 23.1 | -3.9 | 18.4% | 1.18 |
| Consumer Staples | 21.5 | 20.8 | 20.1 | +0.7 | 5.4% | 3.98 |
| S&P 500index | 20.4 | 19.9 | 19.0 | +0.5 | 13.0% | 1.57 |
| Health Care | 19.0 | 17.4 | 16.6 | +1.6 | 8.6% | 2.21 |
| Real Estate | 18.4 | 18.2 | — | +0.2 | 5.0% | 3.68 |
| Materials | 18.3 | 17.9 | 17.8 | +0.4 | 4.1% | 4.46 |
| Comm. Services | 17.7 | 18.4 | 17.6 | -0.7 | 15.8% | 1.12 |
| Utilities | 17.0 | 18.1 | 18.0 | -1.1 | 6.8% | 2.50 |
| Financials | 15.4 | 14.6 | 13.9 | +0.8 | 11.5% | 1.34 |
| Energy | 13.6 | 12.6 | 11.5 | +1.0 | 1.2% | 11.33 |
Current P/E bars move with Select-Sector SPDRs against the 2026-08-28 FactSet print. NTM EPS growth is a weekly stamp (2026-08-28) — not a live tick. PEG = live fwd P/E / NTM growth. S&P 500 current bar is Bubble's live forward P/E so it matches the PEG card. Source: FactSet earnings insight + live tape.
Quality insight
Mag 7 · share of cap vs share of earnings
Live caps · 2026-08-29
Cap share
38.4%
TTM earnings share
30.0%
8.3 pts of cap without matching earnings. Live caps on a stamped TTM — the gap is the multiple.
| Name | Cap | TTM earn | % of Mag 7 cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDANvidia | $5.25T | $128B | 22.2% |
| AAPLApple | $4.67T | $112B | 19.7% |
| GOOGAlphabet | $4.19T | $108B | 17.7% |
| MSFTMicrosoft | $3.81T | $118B | 16.1% |
| AMZNAmazon | $2.87T | $76B | 12.2% |
| METAMeta | $1.47T | $72B | 6.2% |
| TSLATesla | $1.38T | $9B | 5.8% |
Classic Mag 7 (Tesla in, Broadcom out). Caps live · TTM earnings 2026-06-30. S&P cap ≈ Wilshire × 0.80.
The 2007 / 26 leverage swap
Who owes the $353 trillion
Templeton sleeve vs US large · GMO 7yr real %
Credit split: quality tight, tail leaking
Investor-school map— what each name would actually own in 2026
Tap a school to pin it. The mosaic, the finding, and this week's book follow. Stored on this device.
The finding
Closest analog is 2021, not a crash timer. CAPE − TIPS is +0.05 pts.
The mosaic rhymes 79/100 with 2021. Claim years 100 — 1999 claimed 62. Quiet tail 10.4. Breadth of one 66 — seven names wearing an S&P jersey. If CAPE mean-reverts to 22, the S&P is -48% — 27 years of this starting yield to heal it. Mag 7 own 38% of cap and 30% of earnings. The open sleeve is Templeton. Buffett's category is still cash.
Sources: Yahoo Finance (live tape) · multpl.com Shiller CAPE / trailing EPS / trailing P/E · GuruFocus Buffett Indicator · ICE BofA OAS via FRED (HY / CCC) · IIF Global Debt Monitor · Berkshire Hathaway Q2 2026 10-Q · GMO 7yr real return forecast Jul 2026 · Case-Shiller / Census income · Cboe VIX / SKEW / MOVE · FactSet NTM EPS + sector forward 12M P/E and NTM growth · CompaniesMarketCap USA list (Mag 7 live caps) · Shiller / Yahoo year-end / FRED / IIF annual reconstructions (1970–now KPI trends) · Bubble analog rhyme (CAPE × Buffett × ERP × Mag 7 × VIX vs 1974/1999/2007/2021) · Bubble if-the-line (CAPE vs 22 × CAPE yield recoup) · sleeve 10y real vs TIPS