Rates desk · daily stamp
The curve is a map
10-year 4.88%. 2s10s +0.25 pp. 10y breakeven 2.20%. Term premium +0.87 pp. SPY expected move to expiry 1.4%. Not CME. Not OptionStrat. A peak is not called.
Now
Public cousins · not the terminal brand
What the curve is doing
10-year 4.88%. 2s10s +0.25 pp. 10y breakeven 2.20%. Term premium +0.87 pp. SPY expected move to expiry 1.4%. Not CME. Not OptionStrat. A peak is not called.
World 10-year
1-year rise · OECD monthly · US DGS10 daily
Fastest-rising 10-year yields
Korea leads the 1-year rise at +160 bp to 4.45%. Japan +140 bp to 3.05%, a 30-year high on this OECD print. US 10-year +77 bp to 4.88% (DGS10 daily). OECD monthly last 2026-09. Public FRED cousins, not Bloomberg. A peak is not called.
🇰🇷 Fastest
+160
Korea · 4.45%
🇺🇸 US 10-year
4.88%
+77 bp · 1 year
US, 1-year
+77
from 4.11%
Risers
16/16
1-year yield up
OECD as of
2026-09
monthly last
US as of
11-09
DGS10 last
1-year change · basis points
| Sovereign | A year ago | Now | 1-year | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KoreaKR | 2.85% | 4.45% | +160 bp | 2026-09 m |
| JapanJP30y high | 1.65% | 3.05% | +140 bp | 2026-09 m |
| AustraliaAU | 4.30% | 5.28% | +99 bp | 2026-09 m |
| FranceFR | 3.52% | 4.48% | +96 bp | 2026-09 m |
| GreeceGR | 3.39% | 4.23% | +84 bp | 2026-09 m |
| GermanyDE | 2.69% | 3.47% | +78 bp | 2026-09 m |
| United StatesUS | 4.11% | 4.88% | +77 bp | 2026-11-09 |
| PortugalPT | 3.13% | 3.85% | +72 bp | 2026-09 m |
| CanadaCA | 3.22% | 3.88% | +66 bp | 2026-09 m |
| SpainES | 3.27% | 3.92% | +66 bp | 2026-09 m |
| New ZealandNZ | 4.29% | 4.94% | +65 bp | 2026-09 m |
| MexicoMX | 8.79% | 9.35% | +56 bp | 2026-09 m |
| United KingdomUK | 4.69% | 5.24% | +55 bp | 2026-09 m |
| ItalyIT | 3.54% | 3.99% | +45 bp | 2026-08 m |
| NetherlandsNL | 2.88% | 3.29% | +41 bp | 2026-08 m |
| SwitzerlandCH | 0.20% | 0.59% | +39 bp | 2026-09 m |
FRED DGS10 daily for the United States. OECD IRLTLT01 monthly 10-year for Korea, Japan, Australia, France, Greece, Italy, Germany, Portugal, Canada, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Mexico, New Zealand, Switzerland. Singapore and Brazil OECD 10-year 404. Not Bloomberg. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW
Nominal curve
2s · 5s · 10s · 30s
The Treasury curve, not a forecast
2s 4.56%, 5s 4.67%, 10s 4.88%, 30s 5.26%.
2y
4.56%
nominal
5y
4.67%
nominal
10y
4.88%
nominal
30y
5.26%
nominal
Window · 2s 5s 10s 30s · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Real curve
DFII5 · DFII10 · DFII30
TIPS yields, the real curve
Real 5y 2.42%, 10y 2.66%, 30y 3.08%. Tonight’s Ilmanen stack uses the 10-year.
Real 5y
+0.5
2.42%
DFII5
Real 10y
+1.0
2.66%
DFII10
Real 30y
+1.3
3.08%
DFII30
Window · real 5s 10s 30s · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Breakevens
5y · 10y · 5y5y
Inflation priced in the curve
5y 2.25%, 10y 2.20%, 5y5y 2.15%. The Fed watches 5y5y. This is not Cleveland Fed.
5y BE
-0.4
2.25%
T5YIE
10y BE
-0.3
2.20%
T10YIE
5y5y
-0.3
2.15%
T5YIFR
Window · 5y, 10y, 5y5y forward · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Term premium
NY Fed THREEFYTP10
Compensation for duration, not the yield
NY Fed 10-year term premium +0.87 pp against a 4.88% 10-year. ACMTP10 404s. This is THREEFYTP10.
Term premium
+1.1
+0.87 pp
THREEFYTP10
10-year
+3.6
4.88%
DGS10
M2 velocity
-0.3
1.42
M2V, quarterly
Window · term premium vs 10-year · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
2s10s versus winter
T10Y2Y · USREC bands
Inverted is a recession photograph with a lag
2s10s +0.25 pp. 3m10s +0.68 pp. 2022–24 inverted and did not produce a recession. Gundlach: a map, not a timer.
2s10s
-0.8
+0.25 pp
T10Y2Y
3m10s
-0.5
+0.68 pp
T10Y3M
Broad dollar
+2.6
121.9
DTWEXBGS
Window · 2s10s · NBER winters shaded · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Funds corridor
IORB · SOFR · DFF · target
The plumbing, not a cut call
Effective 3.88%, SOFR 3.88%, IORB 3.90%, target 3.75–4.00. SOFR below IORB is a plumbing photograph.
Effective
+3.8
3.88%
DFF
SOFR
-0.5
3.88%
secured overnight
IORB
0.0
3.90%
interest on reserves
SOFR − IORB
-0.02 pp
floor stress
Window · IORB, SOFR, DFF, target bounds · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Housing carry
Freddie 30-year · starts · Case-Shiller
The rate households actually pay
30-year 7.18%, spread over 10-year 1.96 pp. Starts 1,221k, -7.4% YoY. Case-Shiller +2.1%.
30y mortgage
+4.3
7.18%
MORTGAGE30US
vs 10-year
0.0
1.96 pp
housing spread
Starts
-443
1,221k
HOUST
CS YoY
-14.6
+2.1%
CSUSHPISA
Window · mortgage, 10-year, spread · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Window · Case-Shiller YoY · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Expected move
ATM IV · VIX percentile · VVIX
The move the chain is pricing, not the listed straddle
ATM IV 12.5% · DTE 5d · chain move 1.4% of spot. VIX 30-day cousin 5.0%. IV rank 51.
ATM IV
12.5%
2026-11-17
Chain move
1.4%
5d to expiry
VIX 30d
-2.8
5.0%
VIX × √(30/365)
VVIX
-2.6
91
vol of vol
IV rank
51
VIX 1y percentile
VIX
-2.8
17.5
spot
MOVE
+7.1
92
Yahoo ^MOVE
SPY
759.81
chain spot
Window · MOVE, VIX, VVIX · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
FRED DGS2/5/10/30, T10Y2Y, T10Y3M, DFII5/10/30, T5YIE, T10YIE, T5YIFR, THREEFYTP10 (NY Fed 10-year term premium; ACMTP10 404s), IORB, SOFR, DFF, DFEDTARU/L, DTWEXBGS, M2V, MORTGAGE30US, HOUST, CSUSHPISA, USREC. Yahoo ^MOVE, ^VIX, ^VVIX, SPY chain ATM IV. Expected move is Black-Scholes ATM × √(DTE/365), not the listed straddle. Not CME. Not OptionStrat. A peak is not called. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW