Tonight desk · daily stamp
A rule is not a ticket
6 of 12 master rules on. Watch 2 of 5. FOMC Dec 8–9, 26d. Next Mag 7 print NVIDIA 5d. Mag 7 in SPY 33.2%. CAPE yield minus real 10y +0.59 pp. A rule is not a ticket. A peak is not called.
Now
Public cousins · named methods
What the rules say tonight
6 of 12 master rules on. Watch 2 of 5. FOMC Dec 8–9, 26d. Next Mag 7 print NVIDIA 5d. Mag 7 in SPY 33.2%. CAPE yield minus real 10y +0.59 pp. A rule is not a ticket. A peak is not called.
FOMC
26d
Dec 8–9
MOVE
92
Yahoo ^MOVE
IWM vs SPY
+4.7%
1-month
Masters as lights
Twelve rules · one boolean each
On means the photograph matches the method
6 of 12 are on. The quote stays on Practices. The rule is the light.
Paul Tudor Jones
Off+3.9%
200-day is a switch
SPY vs 200d
John Hussman
Off30.8
Rich CAPE and weak internals
CAPE · IWM +4.7pp
Seth Klarman
On3.34%
Cash as option when credit is wide
HY OAS
John Templeton
On48.1
Maximum pessimism
Michigan
Stanley Druckenmiller
Off+5.7%
Liquidity first
M2 YoY
Howard Marks
Off0.47 pp
Cycle position in credit
BAA − AAA
Warren Buffett
On230%
Price is what you pay
Wilshire / GDP
Benjamin Graham
On-2.87 pp
Earnings yield vs AAA
CAPE yield − AAA
Nassim Taleb
On149.1
The left tail is priced
Cboe SKEW
Jim Rogers
Off+0.1%
Copper vs gold
HG/GC 3m
John Bogle
On48.2%
Household equity share
Z.1 153064486
Jesse Livermore
Off-2.3%
Never average a loss
SPY 1m and 200d
Expected return
Ilmanen · CAPE yield minus TIPS
The stack you can compute from public prints
CAPE yield 3.25% minus real 10-year 2.66% is +0.59 pp. Below 1pp the equity sleeve is crowded versus inflation-linked. Not AQR. Not a forecast.
CAPE yield
+0.1
3.25%
100 / Shiller PE10
Real 10y
+2.7
2.66%
FRED DFII10
Excess
-1.0
+0.59 pp
yield − TIPS
CAPE
-0.8
30.8
Shiller PE10
Window · CAPE yield, real 10-year, excess · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Mag 7 earnings
Yahoo calendarEvents · not street EPS
The names that are a third of the index, next to the print
Next is NVIDIA, 5d. Dates are Yahoo calendarEvents. Estimates stay off this desk.
| Name | Date | Days | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet GOOGL | 2026-10-28 | past | 293 |
| Amazon AMZN | 2026-10-29 | past | 266 |
| NVIDIA NVDA | 2026-11-17 | 5d | 174 |
| Microsoft MSFT | 2027-01-27 | 76d | 521 |
| Meta META | 2027-01-27 | 76d | 629 |
| Tesla TSLA | 2027-01-27 | 76d | 391 |
| Apple AAPL | 2027-01-28 | 77d | 356 |
Who pays for the tape
Z.1 net equity issuance · annual, lagged
Buybacks as a flow, not a story
Last annual net issuance buybacks $348bn. Negative issuance is net retirement.
Net buybacks
-303
$348bn
−issuance, annual
vs GDP
+0.6
+1.2%
same vintage
HH equities
+22.0
48.2%
Z.1 share of assets
Buffett
+139
230%
Wilshire / GDP
Window · net equity issuance, $bn · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Window · household equity share · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Credit as a curve
IG OAS · HY OAS · leveraged loans
The spread of spreads, not one number
HY 3.34%, IG 0.91%, gap 2.43 pp. Tight is 2007’s first photograph.
HY OAS
+0.6
3.34%
BAMLH0A0HYM2
IG OAS
+0.1
0.91%
BAMLC0A0CM
HY − IG
+0.5
2.43 pp
curve
BKLN vs HYG
+2.3
+1.9%
1y, loan vs bond
Window · HY, IG, spread · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Window · BKLN vs HYG, 100 at start · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
What would have to be true
Arithmetic · not a forecast
For this not to be a crowded tape
Each row is current versus a line this desk can defend. 30% Mag 7 is a concentration line, not a target. Percentiles are this series versus itself. Excess of 2pp is ordinary, not cheap.
| Sleeve | Now | Need | Gap | Side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag 7 in SPYDesk line, not a target | 33.2% | 30.0% | +3.2 | Crowded |
| IWM vs SPY 1mSmall leading large | 4.65pp | 0.00pp | +4.70 | Uncrowded |
| MOVEStay below 90 | 92.4 | 90.0 | +2.4 | Crowded |
| Shiller CAPEBelow 75th percentile | 30.8 | 26.9 | +3.9 | Crowded |
| HY − IG OASNot complacent-tight | 2.43pp | 2.16pp | +0.27 | Uncrowded |
| Household equitiesBelow 75th percentile | 48.2% | 33.9% | +14.3 | Crowded |
| CAPE yield − real 10yIlmanen stack, not a forecast | 0.59pp | 2.00pp | -1.41 | Crowded |
Four lights
Growth · inflation · liquidity · credit
One glyph, four rooms
Hot is easy or running. Cold is stress. Credit hot means spreads are tight — complacent, not healthy. Guide still has the growth×inflation quad. This is the daily four.
Growth
Hot
3.5% · GDPNow · copper/gold
Inflation
Hot
3.7% · CPI YoY
Liquidity
Neutral
+5.7% · M2 YoY · net liq
Credit
Hot
3.34% · HY OAS, tight = easy
Window · CPI, GDPNow, M2 YoY, HY · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
FRED ICE BofA OAS, M2, Michigan, Z.1 issuance and household equities, WALCL−TGA−RRP, GDPNow, CPI, DFII10 real 10-year. Yahoo SPY holdings, Mag 7 calendarEvents, ^MOVE, BKLN, HYG, ^SKEW, HG=F/GC=F, ^W5000 over GDP for Buffett (FRED WILL5000INDFC 404s; Z.1 NCBEILQ027S is the labeled nonfinancial cousin if Wilshire is blank). Shiller PE10. CAPE yield minus TIPS is Ilmanen’s stack, not AQR. Not street EPS. A peak is not called. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW