Fuse desk
The rest of the desk
MOVE 98. SPY GEX -3.6bn. Next FOMC Dec 8–9 SEP, 26d. CRE prices +6.6% annualized. ADS -0.00. Public cousins, not the licensed brands. A peak is not called.
Now
Public cousins · not the licensed brands
What the rest of the tape is doing
MOVE 98. SPY GEX -3.6bn. Next FOMC Dec 8–9 SEP, 26d. CRE prices +6.6% annualized. ADS -0.00. Public cousins, not the licensed brands. A peak is not called.
Fed calendar
Federal Reserve · FOMC calendar
The calendar the overlay was missing
Next meeting Dec 8–9, SEP. Statement is the second day. Funds effective 3.88%.
Days to start
26
Dec 8–9
SEP this time
Yes
dots and SEP
Fed funds
+3.8
3.88%
FEDFUNDS
ECB deposit
2.50%
ECBDFR
| Meeting | Start | SEP | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27–28 | 2026-10-27 | — | past |
| Dec 8–9 | 2026-12-08 | SEP | 26 |
| Jan 26–27 | 2027-01-26 | — | 75 |
| Mar 16–17 | 2027-03-16 | — | 124 |
| Apr 27–28 | 2027-04-27 | — | 166 |
| Jun 8–9 | 2027-06-08 | — | 208 |
| Jul 27–28 | 2027-07-27 | — | 257 |
| Sep 14–15 | 2027-09-14 | — | 306 |
| Oct 26–27 | 2027-10-26 | — | 348 |
| Nov 16–17 | 2027-11-16 | — | 369 |
| Jan 25–26 | 2028-01-25 | — | 439 |
Bond vol
Yahoo ^MOVE · vs VIX
MOVE is a public print here
ICE BofA MOVE via the Yahoo chart. It is not a Cboe tenor and it is not invented.
MOVE
+25.6
97.7
bond vol
VIX
+2.9
18.1
equity vol
Window · MOVE and VIX · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Dealer gamma
Yahoo SPY options · Black-Scholes gamma
GEX from the chain, not SpotGamma
Spot 758.17. Front expiry 2026-11-12. Net -3.65bn for a 1% move across the nearest expiries. Call minus put.
Net GEX
-3.7bn
call − put
Call GEX
6.1bn
406 strikes
Put GEX
9.7bn
313 strikes
Flip
755
cumulative net cross
Front expiry · $bn gamma at 1% · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Leading index
Public reconstruction · 2016 = 100
Not the Conference Board
Reconstructed LEI 100.0, +0.1% over six months. OECD CLI is the published cousin.
Public LEI
+0.7
100.0
2016 = 100
6-month
+0.1%
rebased index
OECD CLI
-0.4
101.00
100 = trend
Window · public LEI vs OECD CLI · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Factory cousin
Philly Fed · Empire State · Dallas
ISM’s public cousins
ISM manufacturing and services are licensed. NAPM 404s. Zero is expansion on these Fed surveys.
Cousin avg
19.9
equal weight
Philly Fed
-5.8
20.9
GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI
Empire State
-10.3
25.5
GACDISA066MSFRBNY
Dallas
-14.6
13.4
BACTSAMFRBDAL
Window · three Fed surveys · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Desk surprise
ADS · GDPNow − BEA · WEI · CFNAI
Not Citi Economic Surprise
Desk z-score +0.23. ADS is Philly Fed, not FRED.
Desk z
+0.23
ADS + WEI + CFNAI + gap
ADS
+0.4
-0.004
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti
GDPNow − BEA
+0.1 pp
nowcast minus print
WEI
+1.4
3.29
NY Fed weekly
ADS
-0.00
+0.28 in window
WEI
3.3
+1.3 in window
CFNAI
0.07
-0.32 in window
Window · ADS, WEI, CFNAI · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
13F crowding
Yahoo holder % · Mag 7 plus crowded names
Beyond the seven names
heldPercentInstitutions from quoteSummary. 13F is quarterly; this is the live holder photograph. Not a 13F scrape.
| Name | Inst % | YTD | vs SPY | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
UnitedHealth UNH | 90.8% | +22.7% | +11.6% | 405.17 |
Eli Lilly LLY | 85.9% | +33.6% | +22.4% | 1,435.64 |
Alphabet GOOGL · Mag 7 | 80.7% | -4.3% | -15.5% | 299.62 |
Broadcom AVGO | 79.7% | +5.2% | -6.0% | 364.02 |
Meta META · Mag 7 | 77.9% | -5.8% | -16.9% | 622.08 |
Home Depot HD | 77.2% | +1.2% | -10.0% | 348.05 |
Microsoft MSFT · Mag 7 | 76.2% | +8.2% | -2.9% | 523.46 |
JPMorgan JPM | 75.7% | +6.7% | -4.5% | 343.76 |
Costco COST | 74.3% | +26.7% | +15.5% | 1,092.52 |
NVIDIA NVDA · Mag 7 | 71.4% | -12.3% | -23.4% | 163.61 |
Exxon XOM | 69.3% | +41.8% | +30.6% | 170.63 |
Amazon AMZN · Mag 7 | 68.7% | +16.6% | +5.4% | 269.03 |
Berkshire BRK-B | 67.5% | +17.6% | +6.4% | 590.85 |
Apple AAPL · Mag 7 | 67.0% | +30.9% | +19.7% | 355.72 |
Tesla TSLA · Mag 7 | 45.1% | -13.2% | -24.4% | 390.34 |
Oracle ORCL | 42.9% | -34.8% | -46.0% | 127.14 |
Walmart WMT | 38.6% | +12.9% | +1.7% | 125.77 |
Earnings revisions
Yahoo earningsTrend · current quarter
Up versus down, last 30 days
Net analyst revisions across the tape: +44. Current quarter, last 30 days.
| Name | Up 30d | Down 30d | Net | Inst % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Microsoft MSFT · Mag 7 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 76.2% |
Costco COST | 12 | 1 | +11 | 74.3% |
UnitedHealth UNH | 16 | 6 | +10 | 90.8% |
Meta META · Mag 7 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 77.9% |
Eli Lilly LLY | 11 | 2 | +9 | 85.9% |
Exxon XOM | 11 | 2 | +9 | 69.3% |
Apple AAPL · Mag 7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 67.0% |
Tesla TSLA · Mag 7 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 45.1% |
Broadcom AVGO | 2 | 0 | +2 | 79.7% |
Berkshire BRK-B | 2 | 0 | +2 | 67.5% |
Walmart WMT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38.6% |
NVIDIA NVDA · Mag 7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 71.4% |
JPMorgan JPM | 4 | 5 | -1 | 75.7% |
Home Depot HD | 1 | 3 | -2 | 77.2% |
Oracle ORCL | 1 | 3 | -2 | 42.9% |
Amazon AMZN · Mag 7 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 68.7% |
Alphabet GOOGL · Mag 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 80.7% |
Insiders
Yahoo insiderTransactions · 90 days
Form 4 text, net dollars
Net buy minus sale across the names: -$1.7bn. Sales dominate this tape when they do.
| Name | Net 90d | Buys | Sales | Last text |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NVIDIA NVDA · Mag 7 | -$960.0m | — | -$960.0m | Sale at price 222.19 - 223.75 per share. |
Amazon AMZN · Mag 7 | -$365.3m | — | -$365.3m | Sale at price 243.47 per share. |
Meta META · Mag 7 | -$116.7m | — | -$116.7m | Sale at price 606.85 - 613.88 per share. |
Apple AAPL · Mag 7 | -$95.4m | — | -$95.4m | Sale at price 325.75 per share. |
Microsoft MSFT · Mag 7 | -$79.4m | — | -$79.4m | Sale at price 544.24 - 544.95 per share. |
Walmart WMT | -$27.4m | — | -$27.4m | Sale at price 124.51 per share. |
Eli Lilly LLY | -$23.0m | — | -$23.0m | Sale at price 1402.52 per share. |
Berkshire BRK-B | -$19.7m | +$250k | -$20.0m | Sale at price 503.09 per share. |
Costco COST | -$3.8m | — | -$3.8m | Sale at price 958.20 per share. |
Home Depot HD | -$3.3m | — | -$3.3m | Sale at price 305.95 per share. |
Oracle ORCL | -$1.9m | +$3.5m | -$5.3m | Purchase at price 139.35 per share. |
JPMorgan JPM | -$1.8m | — | -$1.8m | Sale at price 352.81 per share. |
Tesla TSLA · Mag 7 | -$938k | — | -$938k | Sale at price 360.13 per share. |
UnitedHealth UNH | -$661k | — | -$661k | Sale at price 390.00 per share. |
Alphabet GOOGL · Mag 7 | $0 | — | — | — |
Broadcom AVGO | $0 | — | — | — |
Exxon XOM | $0 | — | — | — |
Private credit
BUSLOANS · TOTLL · BIZD vs HYG
Not Preqin AUM
Bank C&I loans and total loans, year-over-year. BIZD is the listed BDC cousin versus HYG.
C&I loans YoY
+25.3
+10.0%
BUSLOANS
Total loans YoY
+9.6
+7.9%
TOTLL
BIZD
12.47
listed BDCs
HYG
77.07
high yield ETF
Window · C&I and total loans, YoY · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Window · BIZD vs HYG, indexed 100 · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
China
BIS credit to private non-financial
Credit impulse, not a Bloomberg private print
Stock YoY +5.5%. Impulse is the four-quarter change in that YoY.
Credit YoY
-23.3
+5.5%
CRDQCNAPABIS
Impulse
-4.4
-1.2 pp
Δ YoY, 4q
Window · China credit YoY and impulse · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
G4 policy
Fed · ECB · Japan · UK
Four policy rates, one board
Effective funds, ECB deposit facility, Japan call money, UK immediate rates. OECD/FRED, not a swap curve.
United States
+3.8
3.88%
FEDFUNDS
Euro area
+3.0
2.50%
ECB deposit
Japan
+1.0
1.04%
call money
United Kingdom
+3.3
3.73%
immediate
Window · G4 policy rates · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
CRE prices
BIS commercial property · delinquency beside it
A price index, not only a default rate
COMREPUSQ159N is already an annualized percent change. DRCRELEXFACBS stays the delinquency companion from the crash desk.
CRE prices
+6.4
+6.6%
BIS annualized
CRE delinquency
-7.1
1.53%
DRCRELEXFACBS
Window · CRE prices vs delinquency · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
FRED · Yahoo ^MOVE and options · Philly Fed ADS · Fed FOMC calendar, pattern-filled past the posted year. Not ISM, not Conference Board, not Citi CES, not SpotGamma, not Preqin. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW