Clock desk

Around the print

Next Core PCE in 13d. Sitting FF implied 4.08% · hike lean. Dealer leverage 15.8× vs 20×. FINRA investor margin debt $1.48tn, +31% YoY. Investor credit balance $-1046bn (2026-09). Mag 7 in SPY 33.2%. Public cousins. Surprise is vs the prior print, not the street. A peak is not called.

Now

Seven photographs · public cousins

What the clock is doing

The print

CPI · NFP · PCE · FOMC · nearby

Days to the next photograph

Next of the four is Core PCE, 2026-11-25, 13d. Last surprise is versus the prior print.

CPI

28d

3.7% YoY

NFP

22d

+165k

Core PCE

13d

3.1% YoY

FOMC

26d

effective 3.88%

Print	Next	Days	Last	Vs prior
CPIBLS CPIAUCSL	2026-12-10	28d	3.7% YoY	+0.37 pp
NFPBLS PAYEMS	2026-12-04	22d	+165k	+105k
Core PCEBEA PCEPILFE	2026-11-25	13d	3.1% YoY	+0.09 pp
FOMCStatement · SEP	2026-12-08	26d	effective 3.88%	0 bp
Retail salesCensus · pattern	2026-11-16	4d	nearby	—
FOMC minutesFed · +3 weeks	2026-11-18	6d	nearby	—
JOLTSBLS openings · pattern	2026-11-24	12d	nearby	—
GDP second estimateBEA	2026-11-25	13d	nearby	—

Probability

Yahoo 30-day federal funds · not CME FedWatch

The sitting meeting, as futures write it

Dec 8–9 SEP. Implied 4.09% on ZQZ26.CBT. Target 3.75–4.00. hike lean

Implied

4.09%

ZQZ26.CBT

Target mid

3.875%

3.75–4.00

P(hold)

16%

1 − 25bp move

P(hike 25)

84%

P(cut) 0%

Contract	Yahoo	Last	Implied
Dec 2026sitting	ZQZ26.CBT	95.915	4.085%
Jan 2027	ZQF27.CBT	95.810	4.190%
Feb 2027	ZQG27.CBT	95.655	4.345%
Mar 2027	ZQH27.CBT	95.570	4.430%
Apr 2027	ZQJ27.CBT	95.465	4.535%

Window · continuous ZQ=F implied · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Leverage

Cash credits + margin credits − margin debt · FINRA · monthly

Investor credit balance

Sep 2026 print −$1,046.14bn. −$17.5bn from the prior month. Extreme Jun 2026 −$1,061.22bn. Last large surplus Aug 2008 +$205.23bn. The S&P line is the monthly close. A peak is not called.

Credit balance

-625

−$1,046.14bn

Sep 2026

Vs prior month

−$17.5bn

change in the balance

Free credit

+$434bn

cash + margin credits

Most negative

−$1,061bn

Jun 2026

Negative means debt is larger than the cash.

The balance is free credit in cash accounts plus free credit in margin accounts, minus debit balances in margin accounts. Same FINRA Rule 4521 table as the margin-debt board, in millions, drawn here in billions. Through January 2010 the public file keeps the two credit columns combined. From February 2010 they are split and this desk adds them. The last month on the file is the print, and it matches the official table when that page is not gated. The series starts in January 1997. Posters that begin in 1980 use a paid cash-credit file this desk does not have, so that stretch is not drawn. FINRA publishes around the third week of the following month — this is not a daily price. The line on the right is the S&P 500 monthly close. A deep deficit next to a high index is the photograph. It is not a sell.

Window · investor credit and the S&P · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Credit surplus
Credit deficit
S&P monthly close

FINRA customer debit balances · monthly · 1997–now

Investor margin debt

Now $1.48tn, +31% year-over-year. 2021 peak $936bn. 2007 peak $416bn. Record $1.50tn. Dollar level rises with the tape. A peak is not called.

Margin debt

+598

$1.48tn

customer debit balances

Year-over-year

+31.4%

same month last year

Vs 2021 peak

1.58×

$936bn

% of GDP

+0.7

4.48%

nominal GDP

Window · investor margin debt · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Now $1.48tn
2021 $936bn

Window · year-over-year · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Broker-dealer assets / equity · Z.1 · not FINRA

Leverage versus 20 times

Now 15.8×, under the 20× line. 2008 peak 43.8×. 2000 peak 27.6×. Z.1 security credit 2.28% of GDP.

Leverage

-6.1

15.8×

assets / equity

Vs 20×

-4.2×

under the line

2008 peak

43.8×

90 quarters ≥20×

Z.1 credit / GDP

+1.0

2.28%

$742bn

Window · dealer assets / equity · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Now 15.8×
20×

Window · Z.1 security credit / GDP · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Z.1 credit / GDP
2000 2.65%
2021 2.14%

Concentration

Yahoo market cap · SPY top holdings

Mag 7 as a weight, not a vibe

SPY holdings that match the seven sum to 33.2%. Caps sum $22.73tn against nonfinancial corporate equities.

In SPY

33.2%

top holdings sum

Mag 7 cap

$22.73tn

Yahoo marketCap

Vs NF equities

27.4%

NCBEILQ027S

Names

of 7

Name	Cap	SPY weight
AppleAAPL	$5.17tn	7.70%
NVIDIANVDA	$3.95tn	7.58%
MicrosoftMSFT	$3.89tn	5.93%
AlphabetGOOGL	$3.68tn	4.54%
AmazonAMZN	$2.91tn	3.61%
MetaMETA	$1.59tn	2.08%
TeslaTSLA	$1.54tn	1.73%

Internals

IWM · RSP · NYA versus SPY · not NYSE NH-NL

Breadth as cousins, because the diary 404s

Yahoo ^ADD, ^NYHL, and the WSJ diary are not a public series here. Equal-weight versus cap-weight, and small versus large, are.

IWM vs SPY

+4.4%

1-month

RSP vs SPY

+5.9%

equal vs cap

IWM indexed

92.6

shared start = 100

RSP indexed

95.0

shared start = 100

Window · IWM / SPY relative, 100 at start · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Window · RSP / SPY relative · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Copper / gold

Yahoo HG=F · GC=F · SI=F

The growth metal against the haven

Copper 6.19, gold 3,884. Ratio is HG/GC × 1,000.

Copper

+1.7

6.19

HG=F

Gold

+231

3,884

GC=F

HG / GC

+0.4

1.59

× 1,000

Gold / silver

-11.4

77.6

GC/SI

Window · copper / gold × 1,000 · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Flows

FRED RMFSL · not ICI weekly

Money-market assets, because ICI 403s

Retail MM 3,085bn. MoM +$11bn.

Retail MM

+1721

$3,085bn

RMFSL

MoM

+21.4

+$11bn

level change

YoY

+5.1%

assets, not ICI flows

ICI weekly

403

equity vs MM blocked

Window · retail money-market assets · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

FRED CPIAUCSL PAYEMS PCEPILFE GDP DFEDTAR RMFSL BOGZ1FL663067003Q BOGZ1FL664090005Q BOGZ1FL665080003Q NCBEILQ027S · Yahoo 30-day FF HG=F GC=F SPY IWM RSP ^GSPC monthly · FINRA Rule 4521 debit balances, free credit in cash accounts, and free credit in margin accounts (monthly; official page is often Cloudflare-gated, history merged with a public 1997–now reprint of the same table). Investor credit is cash credit + margin credit − debit. Through January 2010 the reprint keeps those two credits combined. Print dates are read daily from the Fed FOMC calendar, the BEA release calendar, and the Census retail calendar. BLS is read when the host answers; after the last posted date the countdown is a labeled desk pattern, not a frozen year. Not CME FedWatch, not ICI weekly, not NYSE NH-NL, not a 1980 Haver splice, not street consensus. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW