Crash terminal

BubbleLiq

Liquidity desk · daily stamp

Plumbing is not a bid

Net liquidity $5.79 T. 13-week -0.04 T. SOMA 4-week +0 bn. ON RRP $0.00 T. M2 YoY +5.7%. SOMA minus TGA minus overnight RRP. Not a buy ticket. A peak is not called.

Now

Public cousins · not H.4.1 as a page

What the plumbing is doing

Net liquidity $5.79 T. 13-week -0.04 T. SOMA 4-week +0 bn. ON RRP $0.00 T. M2 YoY +5.7%. SOMA minus TGA minus overnight RRP. Not a buy ticket. A peak is not called.

Net

-0.3

$5.79 T

SOMA − TGA − RRP

SOMA

-0.5

$6.75 T

WALCL

TGA

+0.2

$0.96 T

WTREGEN

ON RRP

-0.5

$0.00 T

RRPONTSYD

Reserves

-478

$2,930 bn

WRESBAL

QT 4w

+97.0

+0 bn

SOMA change

13-week

-0.04 T

net liq

M2 YoY

-6.9

+5.7%

M2SL

Window · net liquidity, $T · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

The three tanks

WALCL · millions into trillions

Fed total assets

SOMA is the stock. QT is the flow. A shrinking balance sheet is 2022. A peak is not called.

Window · SOMA and net, $T · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

WTREGEN · the Treasury’s checking account

Treasury General Account

A rebuild of the TGA drains net liquidity even when SOMA is flat. 2021 and 2023 were TGA photographs.

TGA

+0.2

$0.96 T

WTREGEN

Window · TGA, $T · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

RRPONTSYD · leftover cash at the Fed

Overnight reverse repo

The ON RRP facility is dry powder leaving. A drain of RRP into T-bills is not easing. A peak is not called.

ON RRP

-0.5

$0.00 T

billions into trillions

Window · ON RRP, $T · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

WRESBAL · bank reserves

Reserve balances

Reserves are the other face of SOMA minus TGA. Ample is not a law. Scarce is 2019. A peak is not called.

Reserves

-478

$2,930 bn

WRESBAL

Window · reserves, $bn · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

The flow

4-week change in WALCL, billions

QT pace

Negative is runoff. The cap is a rule, not a print of what actually rolled off. A peak is not called.

4-week

+97.0

+0 bn

SOMA

13-week

+10 bn

SOMA

Window · 4-week SOMA change, $bn · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

M2SL year-over-year

M2

The stock of money, not the Fed’s balance sheet. Tight M2 was 2022–23. Loose is not a buy ticket.

M2 YoY

-6.9

+5.7%

M2SL

Window · M2 YoY · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

Indexed 100 · not a law

Net liquidity versus SPY

Paid terminals overlay the S&P on net liquidity. 2020–21 they rose together. 2022 they did not always. A rhyme is not a law.

Window · indexed 100 · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12

FRED WALCL (Fed total assets, millions → trillions), WTREGEN (Treasury General Account), RRPONTSYD (ON RRP, billions → trillions), WRESBAL (reserve balances, millions → billions), M2SL. Net = WALCL − TGA − RRP. QT pace is the 4-week change in WALCL, billions. Yahoo SPY weekly, indexed 100. USREC bands. Not H.4.1 as a Bloomberg page. Not ICI. A peak is not called. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW