How the tape is built
Method
Bubble is a crash terminal on public prints. Yahoo for prices. FRED for the Fed, labor, credit, and the curve. Cboe via Yahoo for VIX tenors. Fear and greed is a seven-sleeve reconstruction, not CNN. The hyperscaler chart is a JPMAM still. A peak is not called. Historical red is hindsight after a known high. The live analog last bar is today, not a high of the current year.
What this is not
It is not a buy or sell ticket. It does not map crash clocks onto a 0–20 analog of 1998. It does not invent ICE OAS, ISM PMI, Citi Economic Surprise, the official Conference Board LEI, SpotGamma GEX, Preqin private credit, or a 2031 candle. Factory pulse is Philly Fed, Empire State, and Dallas — NAPM 404s on FRED. MOVE is Yahoo ^MOVE, a public chart, not a number we made up. London gold on FRED is gone. TLT does not exist in 1987. DGS10 is a yield in basis points and is never mixed into a bond return.
Overlay
Each winter is indexed to 100 at a known high found near a seed date. Trough is the low inside a window after that high. Recover is the first close back through the high. 2000 overlay is Nasdaq. 1987 trough is the December low, not Black Monday. The dashed live line starts at the 52-week high.
Aftermath
Two origins: the known high and the trough. Three horizons: five trading sessions, ninety-one calendar days, three hundred sixty-five calendar days. 2000 aftermath is the S&P, not Nasdaq. Gold is GC=F from 30 Aug 2000. TLT from 2002. Median is the photograph. The trough is not called in real time.
NFCI
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, weekly since 1971. Zero is average. Negative is looser. Positive is tighter. Percentile ranks loosest to tightest. Subindices (risk, credit, leverage) are separately standardized and do not sum to NFCI. The long tape stays weekly. Around-high panes are monthly last. Tight is not a sell ticket.
VIX zones
Cboe VIX with 15 / 25 / 35 bands, the street cheat sheet (buy above 35, sell below 15). This desk treats those as photographs: Quiet, Ordinary, Stress, Wash. Time in each band is a census of the monthly tape. Forward S&P is the median three and twelve months after the first touch of that band, overlapping SPY. Click a zone to isolate it. Window clips the spot tape. Dots mark 35+. A wash is named after the low. A peak is not called.
VIX term
Spread is VIX3M minus VIX. Positive is contango, the ordinary slope. Negative is backwardation, the front being bid. Bands: ≥ +3 steep, +1.5 to +3 ordinary, 0 to +1.5 flat, below 0 backwardation, ≤ −5 crisis. Anatomy snapshots are Now, 16 Mar 2020, and 24 Oct 2008. VIX9D starts 2011, so 2008 has no 9-day. ^VIX3M max-range returns one bar and must be chunked. ^VXV is dead; FRED VXVCLS is the cousin.
Correlation
Pearson of daily log returns over 63 trading days. Average risk corr is the mean of the 15 pairs among SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLK, HYG, EEM. TLT and GLD are shown and excluded from that average. High average is the crash already being bid together, not a timer.
Presidential cycle
S&P weekly since 1952. Four calendar years: election, post, midterm, pre. 2024 is an election year, so 2026 is midterm. Composite indexes each completed cycle to 100 at January of the election year, then averages. The midterm pane re-indexes at January of the midterm year. September is weeks 34–39. Forward +1w / +4w / +13w / +26w uses weekly bars from this calendar day in prior midterm years. The calendar is not a timer.
Treasury duration
Bloomberg’s Treasury-ETF net weekly flow as a percent of NAV is not a public print. This board is FRED DGS10 against TLT’s weekly price change since 2002. Circles mark local yield highs or weeks where TLT lost 2.4% or more. Price is not flow. A peak is not called.
Fear and greed
A seven-sleeve reconstruction on public prints, not CNN’s index. Sleeves: S&P versus 125-day average, Wilder RSI-14, VIX versus 50-day, VIX in its two-year range, VIX3M minus VIX, 20-day S&P minus TLT, ICE BofA high-yield OAS in its five-year range. Each sleeve is scaled 0–100 (fear to greed) and averaged. Bands: 0–24 extreme fear, 25–44 fear, 45–55 neutral, 56–75 greed, 76–100 extreme greed. Complacency is a photograph, not a sell ticket.
Overbought / oversold
Wilder RSI-14 on SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLK. Overbought is RSI ≥ 70. Oversold is RSI ≤ 32. Extended is RSI ≥ 63 or more than 8% above the 50-day. Washed-out is RSI ≤ 30 and at least 5% below the 50-day. Bollinger %B is price inside the 20-day, 2-sigma band (0 at the lower, 1 at the upper). A 1999 stretch can last. A washout is usually named after the low.
Playbook
Four stages: Quiet, Watch, Stress, Crash. Crash if the tape is ≤ −20% from the 52-week high, VIX spread ≤ −5, or Sahm triggers. Stress if ≤ −10%, VIX backwardation, NFCI tight, or junk OAS wide. Watch if −5%, a flat VIX, or an overbought RSI. The method is confirm two clocks, ballast, do not catch the first knife, scale in rather than lever, and treat the trough as hindsight. Median aftermath photographs sit on the board. This is not a ticket.
After corrections
Shiller monthly S&P since 1950, trailing twelve-month dividend carried forward when the recent print is blank, reinvested monthly. Drawdown is price versus a running high. Overlapping mode counts every month the close was −10/−20/−30% or worse, then the next 12 / 36 / 60 months of total return — the same room as Carlson’s March 2026 card (+15 / +42 / +72 at −10%). First-print mode arms on a new high, fires once when the threshold is crossed, then waits for a new high. Further is extra price decline in the next 36 months. CAPE splits are PE10 at or above 25 versus below 20 at the print. Means, medians, and win rates are all shown. The viral “take out a loan at −30%” line is inverted here: every first −30% crossing in the sample went deeper. Failed corrections are first −10% prints whose 36-month peak-to-trough never reaches −20%. Past photographs are not a ticket.
Live guide
A page of paid cousins on public prints. Sectors are the eleven SPDRs as an equal-cell heatmap (1-day through from-high), 52-week of 252 sessions, Wilder RSI-14, plus how many sit above the 50-day and the 200-day. The regime strip is the same eleven, each day: strong is above both averages, slipping has lost the 50-day, repair is back over the 50-day and still under the 200-day, broken is under both. The day read asks whether a green SPY is broad or only the AI book — XLK and XLC, not a custom index. Factors are IWD, IWF, MTUM, QUAL, USMV, RSP, MAGS, EFA, EEM, HYG, TLT, GLD, BIL, with twelve-month spreads. Cross-asset adds USO, UUP, and bitcoin. The quilt is eight calendar-year sleeves ranked best to worst, Callan / JPM Guide cousin, current year year-to-date. Rotation is JdK-style RS-Ratio and RS-Momentum versus the S&P, weekly, four rooms around 100. The growth–inflation rooms use FRED industrial production and CPI year-over-year, three-month change, and Atlanta GDPNow. Asset photographs after each room are overlapping monthly medians of subsequent S&P, TLT, and gold. Tactical is seven public gates — 200-day, 10-month, RSP, IWM, HYG, 12-month absolute, S&P versus EAFE — not a black-box model. Tactical NAV is those rules as wealth paths versus the S&P and 60/40: 10-month SMA (Faber) holds SPY next month if month-end is above the average, else T-bills (FRED TB3MS / 12); dual momentum (Antonacci) holds the 12-month winner of SPY versus EFA if that winner is positive, else cash. 2009 and 2020 are named as the years the light sold the low. 60/40 is SPY/TLT monthly rebalance, max drawdown, the 2022 scar on both sleeves, a CPI-deflated toggle, and 36-month SPY/TLT correlation as the 2022 fuse. The quilt has the same real toggle. The crowd census is AAII weekly (public xls), CFTC non-commercial net, Cboe equity put/call (history plus live daily stats), Cboe SKEW, and first ≥25 bp Fed cuts after a ≥1 pp hike — photographs after extremes, not a composite. Missing-days uses SPY daily since inception and skips the ten, twenty, or fifty best sessions in hindsight; the ten worst is the other cousin. Lump versus DCA is every rolling twelve-month window. Rolling 1 / 5 / 10-year best and worst are every overlapping window on SPY, five- and ten-year annualized. Month seasonality is average SPY monthly change since 1993. None of this is a ticket. Bespoke, Finviz, Callan, Koyfin, Hedgeye, StockCharts, Sentimentrader, Allocate Smartly, JPM Guide, Schwab, and Vanguard are named as cousins, not as data vendors.
Hyperscaler debt
Digitized from Bloomberg / JPMAM, 31 August 2026: hyperscaler plus NVIDIA debt issuance including SPVs as a percent of Treasury bond issuance, computed as annual net change in ten-year UST equivalents. 2019 was a net paydown. 2026 is the crowding year. It is a still, not a live FRED series. The live fuse on that board is ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) and IG OAS (BAMLC0A0CM). Crowding is not a timer.
Window
The date window lives in the sticky header — one control, persisted, the way a paid terminal keeps a global range. YTD, 3M, 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, 25Y, MAX clips every calendar tape on the desk. Analog overlays (months from a known high), the crash clock, speed, aftermath, the presidential cycle, and the secular-bull overlay stay event-relative. The 10-year real CAGR pane follows the window. If a print is younger than the window, you see the whole print.
G20 bonds
OECD monthly 10-year government yields for G20 members that FRED carries. The United States is DGS10 monthly last, so it leads the OECD US cousin. Click a sovereign to pin it. Italy−Germany is the euro-stress spread. China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Russia only appear if the OECD print exists. A 2022 duration wreck was global. A peak is not called.
World 10-year rise
Ranked 1-year change in the 10-year, in basis points — the public cousin of a fastest-rising-yields still. The United States is FRED DGS10, daily, versus the same calendar day last year. Everyone else is OECD monthly IRLTLT01 on FRED, so the photograph lags a Bloomberg close. Singapore and Brazil OECD 10-year 404. The desk window does not clip this ranking. New month and year prints land when FRED publishes. A peak is not called.
US debt / GDP
FRED GFDEGDQ188S, gross federal debt as a percent of GDP, quarterly from 1966. Household is HDTGPDUSQ163N. Pin federal or household. Era chips (1981, 2007, 2009, COVID) set the dashed photograph. Window clips the calendar tape. The lower pane is the four-quarter change in percentage points. 2007 was household leverage; the federal print kept climbing after. A stock of claims is not a crash date.
Macro extras
What a crash desk still needed: 10-year real yield (DFII10), the broad dollar (DTWEXBGS), gold (GC=F), WTI, Fed funds, unemployment, 10-year breakeven, 30-year mortgage, and 10y−3m. 2022 was real yields. 1973 was oil. Flight is the dollar. Haven is gold. None of these call a peak.
Macro desk
A dedicated page of cycle photographs Koyfin and MacroMicro keep on one screen. Inflation is twelve-month rates from FRED levels: CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, PCEPI, PCEPILFE, PPIFIS. GDPNow is Atlanta Fed (GDPNOW) against BEA real GDP SAAR (A191RL1Q225SBEA). Factory surveys are Philly Fed (GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI) and Empire State (GACDISA066MSFRBNY); 0 is expansion. ISM NAPM 404s. Anatomy is three rooms — leading (OECD CLI, 10y−3m, Philly Fed, permits, Michigan), coincident (GDPNow, payrolls, participation, JOLTS openings), lagging (U-3, core PCE, funds). We do not sum them into the official Conference Board LEI. Labor extras are CIVPART, PSAVERT, CES0500000003, JTSJOL. Inflation components is the JPM Guide-to-the-Market cousin: BLS NSA indexes times December 2025 relative importance, residual = dining / recreation / other services. Not FactSet. Window clips every calendar tape. A nowcast is not a print. A peak is not called.
Fuse desk
The rest of the desk, on public cousins, never the licensed brand. ISM manufacturing and services stay licensed; NAPM 404s; the factory cousin is Philly Fed, Empire State, and Dallas Fed (BACTSAMFRBDAL), equal weight, zero is expansion. The official Conference Board LEI is licensed; this desk reconstructs nine public sleeves — AWHMAN, inverted ICSA, ACOGNO, ANDENO, PERMIT, SP500, T10YFF, UMCSENT, inverted NFCI — standardizes monthly contributions, cumulates, and rebases so 2016 averages 100. ISM new orders is the missing tenth sleeve. OECD CLI sits next to it and will not match. MOVE is Yahoo ^MOVE against VIX. Citi Economic Surprise is licensed; desk surprise is a z-score of Philadelphia Fed ADS (xlsx, not FRED), GDPNow minus last BEA SAAR, WEI, and CFNAI. 13F crowding beyond Mag 7 is Yahoo heldPercentInstitutions on Broadcom, Lilly, JPMorgan, Berkshire, UnitedHealth, Costco, Walmart, Exxon, Home Depot, and Oracle — not an SEC 13F parse. Dealer gamma is Black-Scholes from the Yahoo SPY chain (IV × open interest × spot² × 1%), call minus put, not SpotGamma. Private credit is BUSLOANS and TOTLL year-over-year plus BIZD versus HYG, not Preqin AUM. China credit impulse is BIS CRDQCNAPABIS: year-over-year of the stock, then the four-quarter change in that YoY. G4 policy is FEDFUNDS, ECBDFR, Japan call money, UK immediate rates. Earnings revisions are Yahoo earningsTrend current-quarter up versus down last 30 days. Insiders are Yahoo insiderTransactions, Form 4 text, purchases minus sales over 90 days. The Fed calendar is read from the FOMC meetings page each day. A year the Fed has not posted is a weekday pattern, labeled pattern, until that slate appears. Statement on the second day, SEP flagged. CRE on this desk is now a price index — BIS COMREPUSQ159N, already an annualized percent change — with DRCRELEXFACBS delinquency as the lag. We do not invent the brands we cannot license.
Clock desk
Leverage, probability, internals, flows, and the calendar around the print — on public cousins, never the licensed brand. CPI and the Employment Situation follow the BLS schedule when the host answers, then the last published slate. PCE and GDP follow the BEA release calendar. Retail sales follow the Census indicator calendar. Past the last posted date the countdown is a labeled desk pattern so the year cannot freeze the desk. FOMC minutes are three weeks after the decision. Last surprise is this print minus the previous print, not versus a Bloomberg street. FedWatch is Yahoo 30-day federal-funds futures: implied is 100 minus the named sitting-month contract, the month of the next meeting, not a fixed September symbol, probability a linear 25-basis-point cousin against the DFEDTAR midpoint — not CME FedWatch and not a cut call. Investor margin debt is FINRA Rule 4521 customer debit balances in securities margin accounts, monthly from January 1997 — the photograph Yardeni and Advisor Perspectives print. Investor credit is the other side of that table: free credit in cash accounts plus free credit in margin accounts, minus the debit balance. Through January 2010 the reprint keeps the two credit columns combined. The last month on the file is the print, and it matches the official table when that page is not gated. The chart starts in 1997 because cash credit before that is not a free public series. The S&P line is the monthly close. The official page is often Cloudflare-gated from this desk, so history is merged with a public reprint of that same table; the live HTML table overwrites when it is not gated. The record is the high on the file. 2021 peaked near $936bn. Year-over-year and the share of nominal GDP follow the window. Dealer leverage is Z.1 broker-dealer total financial assets (BOGZ1FL664090005Q) over equity (BOGZ1FL665080003Q). The 20× line is a round number, not a rule; 2008 printed about 44×. Z.1 security credit (BOGZ1FL663067003Q) over GDP remains the lagged cousin, not FINRA. Mag 7 weight is Yahoo marketCap plus SPY topHoldings; official S&P weights are licensed, Tesla can sit outside the published top ten. Internals are IWM and RSP versus SPY because Yahoo ^ADD and NYSE NH-NL 404. Copper/gold is HG=F over GC=F. ICI weekly equity-versus-MM flows 403; RMFSL retail money-market assets, month-over-month of the stock, is the cousin. We do not invent the brands we cannot license. A peak is not called.
Household mix
The owned-asset stack is Fed Z.1 condensed Table 1, rebuilt every quarter from the current zip — not a licensed pie, not Bogle’s equities-over-financial-assets ratio (that stays on Masters). Corporate equities (LM153064475) and debt securities (LM154022375) are directly and indirectly held: mutual funds, defined-contribution pensions, life-insurance separate accounts. Owner-occupied real estate is LM155035015. Deposits include currency, checkable, time and savings, and money-market funds. Defined-benefit pension entitlements are the liabilities of private, federal, and state-and-local DB funds, not DC assets. Equity in noncorporate business is LM153081115. Other nonfinancial is total nonfinancial minus owner-occupied. Other financial is the residual after those seven. History is annual from 1945, quarterly from 1952. The current zip revises. A mix is not an allocation ticket.
Foreign equities
Foreign holdings of U.S. equities are the Treasury TIC continuous long-term file, grand total (for_lt_eqty_pos_99996) — the series FRED publishes as FORLTEQTYPOS99996. Market value of common stock, preferred, and fund shares issued by U.S. residents, in millions of dollars, monthly from December 1984. July 2026 was 24,341,164 million, $24.34T, and June 2026 was the high on that vintage, $24.51T. Those are a vintage, not the axis. The desk refetches the Treasury zip each UTC day; a new month is appended when they republish, usually the middle of the month after next. Points stay monthly. No daily path is invented. The quarterly Z.1 rest-of-world corporate-equity asset is a lower cousin and is not spliced on. The sticky window clips the chart. A peak is not called.
Capex follows
Information-processing equipment and software is BEA NIPA Table 5.3.5, line A679RC, millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate. The desk reads the current Section 5 workbook each UTC day and divides by 1,000. Year-over-year is the level versus the same quarter a year earlier. Nasdaq, the AI basket, staples, and utilities are Yahoo daily closes. The 1998–2003 and 2022–now panels ignore the sticky window so the earlier episode stays visible. The dashed line on the live Nasdaq is the latest funds-rate step inside the window, not a peak. A new step is another dated row, not a rewrite of the chart. Railways, utilities, Japan, and shale lags are annual and approximate. The dotcom lag is the BEA level peak after the Nasdaq high. The AI basket is an equal-weight of eighteen disclosed names divided by SPY and rebased to 1 at the first 2024 print — not a licensed 81-name index and not NTM EV/EBITDA. Forward P/E is the median on the S&P screen. Sector columns use the same names: cap-weighted year-to-date price, cap-weighted trailing EPS growth, and the residual multiple that makes them multiply. A name outside −100% to +500% EPS is dropped from all three. The residual is not the year-to-date change in forward P/E. XLP/SPY and XLU/SPY are price ratios from 2016; the percentile is versus each ratio’s own path. Withdrawals are the JPMorgan Chase Institute figure for the share of individuals making net withdrawals, read from the published SVG against its own axis ticks, monthly. Breadth is computed from the screen’s daily closes: the moving average includes today, a 52-week extreme is the prior 252 sessions, net lows are new lows minus new highs, and RSI is Wilder’s 14-day under 30. Days with fewer than 300 names are dropped. Alphabet is one share class. The 20-day share, the share stretched or washed out versus each name’s own 50-day, the close-to-close advance-decline line, and screen TRIN use the same pass. Up and down volume follow the close, not the exchange tick. Nasdaq-100 is a second count from Nasdaq’s list and needs 60 names. It is not the NYSE diary. A peak is not called.
Valuation, funding, and oil
Trailing earnings yield and dividend yield are Multpl’s monthly series, joined to the Treasury 10-year on or just before that date. Moody’s Baa is added only when FRED actually answers. A dagger point holds earnings or dividends and lets the price move; intermediate daggers are not drawn as a new earnings path. The earnings level is trailing as-reported, stepped by month. Operating EPS is gated, so it is not invented. Margin is a December earnings yield times that year’s non-estimate price-to-sales, once a year. Shareholder yield and index free-cash-flow yield are not on a free file, so only the dividend leg is drawn. Auction covers and bidder shares are event dates from Fiscal Data. Standing repo is the New York Fed’s accepted amount, including zero, not the reverse-repo facility. Reserve scarcity is the SOFR 99th percentile minus the top of the fed-funds target, labeled as that ceiling rather than an official IORB print. Foreign official Treasury holdings are the TIC major-holders file, monthly, with no interpolation. The federal deficit is the monthly statement’s matching month at the highest line number, in billions, deficit positive. The primary balance is omitted because interest did not parse cleanly. VVIX and VIX1D are Yahoo daily closes. Value versus growth values SPYV and SPYG holdings that also sit on the S&P screen; the path starts the day the desk records it and is not backfilled. WTI is the daily futures close. Retail gasoline, crude stocks, and crude imports stay on EIA’s weekly dates. A peak is not called.
Heat
Three photographs, one daily tape. Bubble concentration is AI Big 10 — Magnificent 7 plus Broadcom, AMD, and Micron — as market cap over the S&P 500 screen. Alphabet is kept once, because both share classes carry the whole-company cap. Today’s print is the change in that weight, in percentage points. The path holds today’s share count and scales the rest of the S&P with SPY; the last point is today’s cap weight, so the window clips history and not the live print. The 40% line is the crest those charts circle. Railroads 63, utilities 36, Nifty Fifty 40, Japan 44 (of MSCI ACWI, not the US market), and TMT 41 are published round numbers. This desk does not redraw the licensed paths. Industry momentum is the median 1-month return versus 12–1 momentum of up to the top 20 names by cap in each industry. The same points switch to week-over-week total return, trailing 3-month total return, year-to-date, 5-year, and 10-year total return, the trailing month, or month-to-date price change. Labels mark the largest industries and the tails; a click pins a name. 12–1 skips the last month. Size is combined cap. Today is the cap-weighted price change. Forward P/E is the screen’s multiple, not a street consensus. Dearest and cheapest sort that multiple; the day chip re-sorts the same hundred by today’s move. A cell is not a ticket. A peak is not called.
Dispersion and shorts
DSPX is Yahoo’s daily print of the Cboe S&P 500 Dispersion Index, from the first bar that feed returns — about two years, not a backfilled history. The percentile is against that path. Index share is VIX squared over VIX squared plus DSPX squared. DSPX over VIX is the same wedge as a ratio. √(VIX² + DSPX²) is total implied equity vol, not a contract. COR1M, COR3M, and VIXEQ are spots: Yahoo returns one bar, so no path is drawn. The short book is the S&P screen’s short float and days to cover, a reprint of FINRA’s bi-monthly file. The percent does not tick every day; the price change does. “Up today” is a name at 10% or more short that rose on the last print. Readings above about 50% often mix arbitrage. Alphabet is kept once on the AI row. Not a dispersion product and not a squeeze radar. A peak is not called.
Daily short volume
The marked-short file is FINRA’s consolidated NMS daily short sale volume (CNMS): off-exchange trades reported to a TRF or the ADF, posted the same evening. Short volume over total volume in that file is a flow. It is not the bi-monthly short-interest position, and it is not the whole tape — exchange prints are absent, and offsetting buys often never appear, so the percent runs high. Near half is an ordinary day; market makers mark shorts as inventory. The chart is the file and SPY. “Louder than usual” is a liquid name at least 8 points above its own path on this fortnight. “Vs position” sets that flow next to the short-interest percent when the position tape has compiled. A loud day is not a cover. A peak is not called.
Tonight desk
The daily stamp. Practices keeps the sentences; Tonight wires each named method to a live public print as a light — Jones to SPY versus the 200-day, Hussman to CAPE in the 92nd plus IWM lagging, Klarman to HY OAS in the 75th, Templeton to Michigan in the 25th, Druckenmiller to M2 year-over-year at or under 2%, Marks to BAA minus AAA, Buffett to Yahoo ^W5000 over GDP (FRED WILL5000INDFC 404s; Z.1 NCBEILQ027S is the labeled nonfinancial cousin, never spliced), Graham to CAPE yield minus AAA, Taleb to Cboe SKEW, Rogers to copper/gold three-month, Bogle to Z.1 household equity share, Livermore to SPY one-month and the 200-day together. Watch is the AND of five chips: CAPE 90th, IWM lag, MOVE at 90, FOMC inside 7 days, Mag 7 at 32% of SPY holdings. All five is a crowded week, not a sell. Mag 7 earnings dates are Yahoo calendarEvents, not street EPS. Buybacks are annual Z.1 net issuance (BOGZ1FU103164103A, millions into billions); a negative print is net retirement. Credit is a curve — ICE BofA HY OAS minus IG OAS, plus BKLN versus HYG as the loan cousin (LCDX is licensed). What would have to be true is arithmetic against lines this desk can defend, including CAPE yield minus DFII10 at least two points. Four lights are growth (GDPNow and copper/gold), inflation (CPI YoY), liquidity (M2 and net liq), and credit (HY OAS, tight prints as hot). The expected-return stack is Ilmanen’s building-block cousin: 100 over Shiller CAPE minus FRED DFII10. Not AQR. Not a forecast. A rule is not a ticket. A peak is not called.
Rates desk
Bloomberg’s US rates monitor, on public FRED, never the terminal brand. Nominal is DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30. TIPS is DFII5, DFII10, DFII30. Breakevens are T5YIE, T10YIE, and T5YIFR 5y5y — not the Cleveland Fed nowcast. Term premium is NY Fed THREEFYTP10 (Kim–Wright three-factor); ACMTP10 404s, so this is not the Adrian–Crump–Moench ACM Bloomberg wraps. 2s10s is T10Y2Y with USREC bands; NBER winters are shaded after the fact; 2022–24 inverted and did not produce a recession. The funds corridor is IORB (from July 2021), SOFR, DFF, and DFEDTARU/L. Housing carry is Freddie 30-year (MORTGAGE30US) minus DGS10, HOUST starts, Case-Shiller CSUSHPISA year-over-year; NAHB is licensed. Expected move is ATM implied vol from the Yahoo SPY chain times the square root of calendar DTE over 365, plus a VIX × √(30/365) cousin. IV rank is the VIX one-year percentile, not a single-name IV. VVIX is vol of vol. Not the listed straddle. Not OptionStrat. Not CME FedWatch. M2 velocity is M2V, quarterly. A peak is not called.
Credit desk
Bloomberg’s US credit monitor (CRDT), on public ICE BofA via FRED, never the terminal brand. HY OAS is BAMLH0A0HYM2. IG is BAMLC0A0CM. CCC is BAMLH0A3HYC, BB is BAMLH0A1HYBB, BBB is BAMLC0A4CBBB. HY−IG is OAS minus OAS — Markit CDX is licensed. Moody’s BAA minus AAA is the century sleeve Tonight wires to Marks. Bank loans are Invesco BKLN versus iShares HYG; LCDX and S&P/LSTA are licensed. Regionals are KRE versus SPY, not a bank CDS. EM dollar credit is EMB versus HYG; CDX EM is licensed. Delinquency is FFIEC DRBLACBS (C&I), DRCCLACBS (cards), DRSFRMACBS (single-family) — Moody’s DRD is licensed. Tight OAS is a crowding photograph. Wide is a winter already named. A spread is not a peak.
FX desk
Bloomberg’s FX monitor, on public FRED, never ICE DXY. Broad is DTWEXBGS (Fed goods trade-weighted). AFE / major is DTWEXAFEGS. EM is DTWEXEMEGS (other important trading partners), not EMB. Euro is DEXUSEU, dollars per euro. Yen is DEXJPUS, yen per dollar — rising is yen weakness, the carry photograph. CNY is DEXCHUS, the H.10 noon buying rate, not the PBOC fix and not USDCNH. Cable is DEXUSUK. Real TWI is RBUSBIS, BIS, monthly. Dollar versus SPY and versus gold are each indexed to 100 at the start of the tape — 2022 is the reminder that gold and the dollar are not a law. Grant’s gold-versus-real-10-year still sits on Rates. A dollar is not a peak.
Liquidity desk
MacroMicro’s US liquidity page, on public FRED, never the Bloomberg H.4.1 brand. Net is WALCL (Fed total assets, millions) minus WTREGEN (TGA, millions) minus RRPONTSYD (ON RRP, billions) — all into trillions. Reserves are WRESBAL. QT pace is the 4-week change in WALCL, billions. M2 is M2SL year-over-year. Net liquidity versus SPY is each indexed to 100 — 2022 is the reminder that the overlay is not a law. USREC bands. A drain is a photograph. A refill is not a bid. A peak is not called.
Fracture
CNN Fear & Greed averages seven sleeves. The crowding census on this desk is also an average. Fracture is a geometric AND of two plates. Fuel is the geometric mean of Buffett, CAPE, and household-equity percentiles — crowding. Ignition is the geometric mean of HY OAS, Chicago Fed NFCI, VIX, draining net liquidity (13-week change inverted), weak equal-weight, and SLOOS — stress. The score is 100 × √(F × I) × √(1 − |F − I|). Isolated stretch scores low. Simultaneous fuel and ignition scores high. Quiet / loaded / coincident / fracture are labels of that number, not a peak call. A peak is not called.
Panic predictability
Humans are most stereotyped under stress. Loss aversion is the photograph: dump beta, bid puts, bid gold. Predictability is the geometric mean of panic percentiles — 63-day herd correlation, VIX, inverted VIX 3-month minus spot, Cboe put/call, inverted fear score, HY OAS, inverted equal-weight, inverted drawdown. Isolated stretch scores low. Simultaneous instinct scores high. Stat-arb room is 100 minus the herd percentile — when the room is gone, picking names is the same trade. The wash table is monthly S&P implied from the drawdown tape after named prints (VIX ≥ 25, corr → 1, extreme fear, backwardation, −10% from high with stress), four-month gaps, overlapping, hindsight. It is not a live algorithm and not a ticket. A peak is not called.
Named names
NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA versus SPY, QQQ, IWM, and MAGS. Yahoo daily, two years. From-high is versus the 252-session peak. Equal-weight Mag 7 indexes the seven names to 100 at a shared start and averages the ratio — it is not MAGS, which is the ETF still. Beat-the-S&P is how many of the seven have a higher 1-year return than SPY. Concentration is a photograph of who is carrying the tape, not a ticket.
US layoffs
A separate pack, so the crash study is not starved. CPS LNS13023621 job losers on layoff, monthly thousands from 1990 — the 30-year tape. Month-over-month is noisy. Year-over-year is the cycle. The heatmap is that YoY print, year × month; the window clips the years. JOLTS JTSLDL starts December 2000 and is a flow; the rate is 100 × JTSLDL / PAYEMS because JTSLDLR 404s. Quits (JTSQUR) against that rate is voluntary versus forced. Openings (JTSJOR) versus UNRATE is the Beveridge photograph. TEMPHELPS is the leading sleeve — temporary-help payrolls turn before the rest of the factory. AWHMAN is weekly hours in manufacturing; hours are cut before heads. IC4WSA is the four-week average of initial claims; CCSA is continued. LNS13023705 is job losers not on layoff, the permanent cousin. 2001, 2008, and COVID are the dashed photographs. Sahm and SLOOS sit on the same labor stretch. A peak is not called.
US recession clock
A separate pack, so the crash study is not starved. CFNAI-MA3 is the Chicago Fed three-month activity average; −0.7 is their recession photograph, not a crash date. Chauvet–Piger (RECPROUSM156N) is a published Markov model on four coincident series. Hamilton’s GDP-based recession index (JHGDPBRINDX) uses 67 as his cutoff. STLFSI4 is St. Louis Fed financial stress, zero average. KCFSI is Kansas City’s cousin. OECD CLI (USALOLITOAASTSAM) is amplitude-adjusted, 100 is trend; the six-month change is the turning-point cousin. TCU is total capacity utilization. TDSP is household debt service as a percent of disposable income; 13% is the 2007 photograph. HOUST year-over-year sits next to permits. The NY Fed 12-month probability is Estrella–Mishkin 1998 on T10Y3M from the crash study; 30% is their elevated line. The 2022–24 inversion did not produce a recession. USSLIND was discontinued in 2020. ISM NAPM 404s. U-6 versus U-3 is underemployment. Card, consumer, and CRE delinquency are the Tremor cousins. Permits, industrial production, real income ex transfers, real retail, factory orders, and housing starts are the public LEI photograph. WEI is the NY Fed weekly index. USREC is NBER after the fact. The twelve lights are a ClearBridge-style anatomy, not a score. CAPE bins are overlapping monthly medians of subsequent S&P 1-year, 3-year annualized, 10-year annualized, and max 3-year drawdown from the datasets PE10 CSV — not independent observations, not Hussman’s 10-year expected-return ticket. Quiet / Watch / Recession is CFNAI −0.7 or Chauvet–Piger 50%, not a sell. A peak is not called.
Masters
Public prints mapped onto the gauges great investors actually named. Buffett is Yahoo ^W5000 over FRED GDP — FRED WILL5000INDFC 404s. One index point has historically tracked a billion dollars of cap; that is a coincidence, not a definition. Z.1 NCBEILQ027S is the nonfinancial cousin, labeled separately, never spliced. CAPE is Shiller PE10 from the datasets/s-and-p-500 CSV. Graham is CAPE earnings yield minus Moody’s AAA. Hussman is CAPE yield minus the 10-year. Marks is BAA minus AAA. Dalio is federal and household debt to GDP. Druckenmiller is M2 year-over-year. Tudor Jones is S&P versus the 200-day. Klarman is high-yield OAS. Burry is Case-Shiller year-over-year. Munger is the 10-year as opportunity cost. Grantham is profit margins and Michigan sentiment. Templeton inverts the same Michigan print. Gundlach is 2s10s. Grant is the real 10-year. Bogle is household equities as a share of financial assets. Smithers is corporate equities over net worth (a q cousin). Rogers is copper over gold. Zweig is Fed funds year-over-year. Taleb is Cboe SKEW. Percentile ranks the history of that sleeve. Rich is a photograph. A peak is not called.
KPI pulse
Monthly Pearson of the desk’s own gauges: fear score, VIX, junk OAS, NFCI, Buffett, CAPE, drawdown, RSI. Window is 36 months. Average is every pair. Euphoria crowding counts greedy, rich, tight-credit-inverse sleeves. Stress crowding counts fear, wide OAS, tight NFCI, deep drawdown. High rhyme is a regime, not a timer. The 63-day board is still prices. This board is the KPIs.
Bubble crowding
A mean percentile of the master sleeves, inverted where the philosophy is cheap-when-high. Dual tape is Buffett versus CAPE. The scatter lets you plot any two gauges — Buffett, CAPE, fear, VIX, junk, NFCI, drawdown, household equity — over the last 120 overlapping months. Put/call is Cboe via Yahoo. SKEW is tail insurance. Household equity share is Z.1. Fama 12-month is Greenwood, Shleifer and You (2019) — a rapid run-up raises the odds of a crash and does not time it. PSY SADF is Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015), a recursive ADF on log S&P; 1.49 is their 95% critical value, explosive is a unit-root rejection. CAPE minus TIPS is Ilmanen's public ERP cousin. VRP is VIX minus realized vol. None of this is a peak call.
Gold vs S&P, China, Mag 7 pairwise
Gold versus the S&P is the public monthly gold tape (LBMA cousin, datahub) spliced with Yahoo GC=F, and Yahoo ^GSPC weekly, monthly last, indexed from August 1971 — the month Nixon closed the gold window. Log scale. The window re-indexes at the first print; MAX is 1971 = 100. Gold-leads bands are 36-month relative return, not NBER. China is iShares MSCI China (MCHI, FXI fallback) versus SPY, weekly, same re-index. Goldman US-listed China ETF creations are licensed and are not on this desk. Dollar volume is price times shares. Mag 7 pairwise is the 252-session average Pearson of daily log returns across the seven names, plus Apple versus the rest — the public cousin of the Bloomberg uniqueness tape. None of this is a peak call.
Secular bulls
Fidelity’s analog of this bull against 1982–2000 and 1949–1968, on public Shiller. Real total return is monthly price plus the trailing dividend over twelve, deflated by Shiller CPI, wealth accumulated and rebased to 100 at each start. March 2009 is the GFC low, not a called peak. The overlay is months from start, so the desk window does not clip it. 10-year real CAGR is calendar and does follow the window, versus a 7% long-run line. A completed analog is hindsight. A peak is not called.
Daily tape
The date in the header is the tape date, UTC. Every pack on disk is keyed to that date — yesterday’s as-of is dropped the moment the calendar rolls, in memory and on disk. The helper clock ticks every thirty seconds and invalidates the query cache on a new day, a new month, or a new year. YTD resets on 1 January. MAX already includes the new print. KPI modules carry a spark of the last prints and jump to their board. Window clips every calendar tape. Analog overlays stay event-relative. Jump remembers the last boards you opened, only if you allowed preference storage. The Daily tape board lists every pack's as-of versus today: crash study, clock, cycle, macro, Mag 7, gold/China, world 10-year, layoffs, fuse, rates, credit, FX, liquidity, guide, tonight, census, social, zero radar, household mix, heat, paid cousins. Disk refuses a stamp that is not today. Stale packs refetch every twelve seconds; live packs check hourly for late prints. Reconnect after sleep also refetches.
Crowding census
The neon gauge and radar at the top map twelve live sleeves onto 0–100: RSI, fear, inverted VIX, Buffett and CAPE percentiles, bubble crowding, inverted junk OAS, crash stage, equal-weight breadth, inverted NFCI, KPI pulse, household equity share. The number is a photograph of how stretched the prints are. It is not a timer that a peak has arrived. Crowded is not a sell ticket. Washed is not a buy ticket. Fracture sits above it: geometric AND of crowding fuel and stress ignition, not another average.
Gold, bitcoin, world
Monthly last of SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLK, HYG, EEM, TLT, GLD plus iShares country tapes — Japan EWJ, Germany EWG, United Kingdom EWU, China FXI, Brazil EWZ — and BTC-USD. Correlation is 36-month Pearson of monthly log returns. 2020 and 2022 overlays are indexed to 100 at those known highs. Gold held in 2020; bitcoin sold then ripped. 2022 both rhymed with Nasdaq. Haven is not automatic. Pick any two tapes for a rolling line and a return scatter. Flags sit next to country names because that was asked. A peak is not called.
Analog rhyme
At the live analog’s month-count from the 52-week high, each known winter is sampled on indexed price, VIX term spread, and junk OAS. Similarity is 100 minus those scaled gaps. Early months look like every quiet tape. A rhyme is not a name for this winter.
Regime map
Monthly VIX versus Shiller CAPE. High CAPE and a sleeping VIX is the complacent-rich room (2000, 2021). High VIX against still-high CAPE is 2020. Low CAPE and high VIX is 2009. The live dot is this month.
Credit lead
High-yield OAS against S&P drawdown. 2007 is the photograph where credit was already wide near the equity high. 1987 had no credit fuse. 2020 was simultaneous.
Horizons
A Decision Desk cousin. Four holding periods so a quiet week cannot veto a stretched CAPE: Tape (today–5 sessions — RSI, VIX zone, fear, distance from the 52-week high), Swing (1 week–3 months — NFCI, HY OAS), Cycle (3–12 months — CFNAI-MA3, Sahm, Chauvet–Piger, U-6), Valuation (3–10 years — CAPE, Buffett, Excess CAPE yield). Each card carries a historical base rate from the aftermath tape or the CAPE-bin subsequent 10-year. Excess CAPE yield is CAPE earnings yield minus DFII10. GuruFocus sells an 8-year expected return from these rooms. This desk shows the subsequent S&P photograph and an allowance, not that ticket.
Hussman room and sideline cash
A separate pack, so the crash study is not starved. Nonfinancial corporate equities (NCBEILQ027S) over gross value added of nonfinancial corporates (A455RC1Q027SBEA) is the public MarketCap/GVA cousin. Hussman’s print includes estimated foreign revenues, so his level sits below this one. The allowance is the index move that would tag this series’ own median or its 25th percentile — the same arithmetic as his 50–75% downside allowance, labeled as allowance, not forecast. WRMFNS is retail money funds. MMMFFAQ027S over M2SL is sideline cash, the allocation pillar Bubble Tracker scores. BOGZ1FL663067003Q is broker-dealer margin credit, the Z.1 cousin of FINRA margin debt. SPX/M2 is 1000 × Shiller S&P / M2SL. A peak is not called.
When it happens
A separate page, not a ticket. Photographs: washed RSI, VIX backwardation, wide OAS, the median three-month trough. Live gates from the playbook. The four rules stay confirm two clocks, ballast, do not catch the first knife, trough is hindsight. “Buy oversold, buy high VIX” is inverted against ended tapes.
Portfolio stress
A dedicated page. Presets and sliders for S&P, Nasdaq 100, Russell, emerging, high yield, TLT, gold, bitcoin, and cash. Leftover weight is cash. Buy-and-hold from the known high, or monthly rebalance. Each winter is indexed to 100 at that high. S&P uses the crash overlay when SPY does not reach the date (the correlation tapes are five-year). Gold is the macro weekly tape. TLT is the Treasury weekly tape from 2002. Bitcoin from 2014. Missing sleeves at a high are treated as cash, and the gap column says so. 2000 overlay is Nasdaq. 2022 is the photograph where stocks and long bonds fell together. 2008 is the photograph where long bonds paid. The valuation room is CAPE, Buffett, and household equity share at each known high versus now; nearest is a rhyme, not identity. XLK/SPY is a concentration cousin, not Mag 7 market cap. Scenario cards walk this mix through the rhyme winter plus 2000, 2008, and 2022. vs equity is the mix trough minus the overlay trough — positive means the mix held up. Bounce is from the mix trough, not from the high, at +3 and +12 months. Preset comparison is 100% S&P, 60/40, 80/20, Nasdaq-heavy, 50/30/20, barbell, all-weather-ish, endowment-ish, and risk-on through the same three winters. Pin a winter to see the 100% equity overlay as a dashed cousin. CAPE bins on this page are the same overlapping monthly medians as the recession clock. Hedge attribution is each sleeve at the overlay’s trough month — 2022 long bonds fell with stocks, 2008 they paid. S&P vs TLT 18-month Pearson is the 60/40 photograph. Ulcer is the rms drawdown from a running peak. Reverse stress lists presets whose 2022 trough stayed above −20%. Sequence of returns stacks 2000 then 2008 then 2022 (or the other orders) — Portfolio Visualizer’s Monte Carlo cousin, except every path already ended. 4% withdrawal takes 4% of the starting 100 each year, monthly, through that stack — the Bengen cousin, not a success probability. 10-month SMA timing is in the overlay when last month closed above its 10-month average, otherwise only ballast. This is not a 10-year expected-return model and not a crash probability. A peak is not called.
Practices
Buffett, Graham, Munger, Templeton, Klarman, Marks, Druckenmiller, Tudor Jones, Dalio, Hussman, Grantham, Bogle, Taleb, Livermore, Soros, Lynch, Rogers, Gundlach, Burry, Simons. Each card is a rule plus how it shows up on this desk. None of it is a buy or sell ticket.
Privacy
No accounts. localStorage holds theme and the chart window. Market data is Yahoo and FRED. Contact is @creainteractiva. The GDPR page is the long form.
Social tape
A separate pack, so the crash study is not starved. Wikipedia monthly pageviews from July 2015 for crash, bubble, housing, and recession pages — the public cousin of Google Trends, not the Trends series. Related searches are Google and YouTube suggest right now. Each keyword opens X, YouTube, Reddit, Google Trends (all-time, so 2008 is on that page), and Threads. The thread module is Hacker News Algolia. Google News RSS is the copy tape. Google Trending RSS is whatever the United States is typing today, usually not a crash word. Reddit JSON is blocked. GDELT 429s. Housing distress sits next to a cited @NoLimitGains post whose Google Trends screenshots we cannot reprint: FRED months’ supply, mortgage delinquency, Case-Shiller, and the 30-year mortgage go through 2008. Wikipedia cannot. Attention is not distress. A peak is not called.
The extras
Sahm is the real-time recession rule; it triggers at 0.50. ICSA is weekly initial claims. SLOOS DRTSCIS is the net share of banks tightening C&I loans. Fed net liquidity is WALCL minus TGA minus overnight RRP, in trillions. Breadth is RSP over SPY, equal-weight versus cap-weight. Recovery census is counted from the underwater tape with no extra fetch. None of these call a peak.
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