Live guide · paid cousins on public prints
What the paid desks sell
Quad is Reflation. Tactical 5/7 · Mixed-on. 8/11 sectors above the 200-day. Technology is the weakest sector, -14.1% from its 52-week high. Value leads the S&P by 16.2 pt over 12 months. Bespoke heatmap, Callan quilt, Koyfin factors, a growth–inflation quad, StockCharts rotation, a 60/40 scar, and the missing-days photograph — live public prints. A peak is not called.
Quad
Reflation
GDPNow 3.5%
Tactical
5/7
Mixed-on
Above 200-day
8/11
8/11 above 50-day
Weakest sector
-14.1%
Technology
Sentimentrader cousin · AAII · CFTC · Cboe · first cuts
The crowd, four sleeves
AAII spread -20.7 pt. E-mini spec net -129,414. Equity P/C 0.59. SKEW 149.1. Last first-cut 2024-10. Four sleeves, photographs after extremes, not a composite you trade.
AAII spread
-8.9
-20.7
30.8 / 51.4
Equity P/C
+0.1
0.59
total 0.92
SKEW
+4.6
149.1
Yahoo ^SKEW
E-mini spec net
+63048
-129,414
-0.5σ 3y
AAII bull − bear
AAII weekly, last print 2026-11-11: 30.8% bull / 51.4% bear, spread -20.7 pt. Photographs are median S&P after the extreme deciles — a Sentimentrader cousin, not a composite you trade.
bottom decile bull−bear
Extreme bearish
- n
- 1
- S&P 3m
- 0.0%
- S&P 1y
- 0.0%
top decile bull−bear
Extreme bullish
- n
- 1
- S&P 3m
- +0.3%
- S&P 1y
- +0.3%
Commitment of Traders · spec net
CFTC non-commercial net on the E-mini is -129,414 contracts, -0.5σ of the last three years. Specs are a crowd photograph, not a positioning ticket. Gold, crude, the dollar, and 10-year notes sit next to it.
E-mini S&P
-129,414
-0.5σ
Gold
179,548
-0.9σ
WTI crude
80,289
-1.4σ
Dollar index
14,190
+1.1σ
10-year notes
-962,359
-1.2σ
Equity put/call
Equity put/call 0.59 · total 0.92. Live print from Cboe daily stats when the door opens; history is Cboe official 1995–2019 plus the last tape. Above 1 is fear. Below 0.60 is complacency. Neither is a timer.
equity P/C ≥ 1.0
Puts bid
- n
- 2
- S&P 3m
- +4.5%
- S&P 1y
- +5.9%
equity P/C ≤ 0.60
Calls bid
- n
- 68
- S&P 3m
- +2.2%
- S&P 1y
- +8.2%
Cboe SKEW
Cboe SKEW 149.1 on 2026-11-11. 100 is a lognormal smile. 120 is ordinary. 140 is the tail being bid — often into a quiet tape, not a crash. Photographs after those rooms, overlapping months.
SKEW ≥ 140
Tail bid
- n
- 56
- S&P 3m
- +2.8%
- S&P 1y
- +11.5%
SKEW ≤ 118
Tail quiet
- n
- 194
- S&P 3m
- +3.8%
- S&P 1y
- +12.1%
First-cut analogs
First ≥25 bp cut after a ≥1 pp hike cycle. Last analog 2024-10 from a funds peak in 2023-08. Median S&P after those prints: 3m 5.8%, 1y 15.8%. 1989, 1995, 2019 were soft. 2001 and 2007 were not. A first cut is not a buy ticket.
Last first cut
2024-10
peak 2023-08
Median S&P 3m
+5.8%
after the cut
Median S&P 1y
+15.8%
overlapping
Cuts in sample
25
≥25 bp after ≥1 pp hike
| Cut | Peak | Funds | Drop | S&P 3m | S&P 6m | S&P 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 2023-08 | 4.83% | −0.50 | +5.8% | -2.5% | +20.0% |
| 2019-08 | 2019-04 | 2.13% | −0.29 | +7.5% | +1.3% | +19.4% |
| 2007-09 | 2007-02 | 4.94% | −0.32 | -4.2% | -13.5% | -24.0% |
| 2001-01 | 2000-07 | 5.98% | −0.56 | -7.6% | -11.4% | -17.4% |
| 1995-08 | 1995-04 | 5.74% | −0.31 | +8.0% | +13.2% | +15.8% |
| 1989-06 | 1989-03 | 9.53% | −0.32 | — | — | — |
| 1987-11 | 1987-10 | 6.69% | −0.60 | — | — | — |
| 1987-01 | 1986-12 | 6.43% | −0.48 | — | — | — |
| 1984-09 | 1984-08 | 11.30% | −0.34 | — | — | — |
| 1982-05 | 1982-04 | 14.45% | −0.49 | — | — | — |
| 1981-08 | 1981-06 | 17.82% | −1.28 | — | — | — |
| 1981-02 | 1981-01 | 15.93% | −3.15 | — | — | — |
| 1980-05 | 1980-04 | 10.98% | −6.63 | — | — | — |
| 1979-11 | 1979-10 | 13.18% | −0.59 | — | — | — |
| 1975-10 | 1975-09 | 5.82% | −0.42 | — | — | — |
| 1974-08 | 1974-07 | 12.01% | −0.91 | — | — | — |
| 1973-10 | 1973-09 | 10.01% | −0.77 | — | — | — |
| 1971-10 | 1971-08 | 5.20% | −0.37 | — | — | — |
| 1969-07 | 1969-06 | 8.61% | −0.29 | — | — | — |
| 1968-09 | 1968-05 | 5.78% | −0.34 | — | — | — |
| 1966-12 | 1966-11 | 5.40% | −0.36 | — | — | — |
| 1961-12 | 1961-11 | 2.33% | −0.28 | — | — | — |
| 1961-03 | 1961-02 | 2.02% | −0.52 | — | — | — |
| 1960-06 | 1959-11 | 3.32% | −0.68 | — | — | — |
| 1957-12 | 1957-10 | 2.98% | −0.52 | — | — | — |
Eleven SPDRs · 50-day · 200-day · daily
Is the green day broad?
SPY -0.2%. The index is red and 9 of 11 sectors are down. 6 of 11 sit above both the 50-day and the 200-day. A soft day is not a call. Not a ticket.
S&P day
-0.2%
SPY
Sectors up
2/11
today
Above both
6/11
50-day and 200-day
Day read
Soft
broad, narrow, or the AI book
XLK
AI
Technology
-0.4%
Slipping
50d -7.4%
200d +1.7%
XLC
AI
Communication
-0.6%
Broken
50d -1.4%
200d -3.9%
XLY
Discretionary
-0.6%
Strong
50d +5.8%
200d +4.2%
XLF
Financials
-0.4%
Strong
50d +4.4%
200d +8.4%
XLV
Health care
-0.3%
Strong
50d +7.8%
200d +17.7%
XLI
Industrials
-0.6%
Repair
50d +0.5%
200d -2.0%
XLP
Staples
-0.2%
Strong
50d +6.8%
200d +7.6%
XLE
Energy
+2.1%
Slipping
50d -0.5%
200d +8.9%
XLB
Materials
-0.8%
Strong
50d +3.3%
200d +2.7%
XLRE
Real estate
-0.1%
Strong
50d +4.6%
200d +2.5%
XLU
Utilities
+0.6%
Repair
50d +5.2%
200d -0.6%
Bespoke Daily Sector Snapshot · Finviz map · internals
Eleven sectors, one heatmap
8 of 11 sectors sit above their 200-day, 8 above the 50-day. Bespoke internals cousin on the eleven SPDRs — not NYSE advance/decline. Narrow leadership fails this while the cap-weight tape still prints green.
Weakest
-14.1%
Technology
Above 50-day
8/11
participation
Above 200-day
8/11
trend
Tech from high
-14.1%
XLK
Health care
-0.7%
XLV
Staples
-0.7%
XLP
Financials
-1.3%
XLF
Materials
-2.4%
XLB
Real estate
-3.2%
XLRE
Discretionary
-3.4%
XLY
Energy
-7.6%
XLE
Utilities
-7.7%
XLU
Industrials
-8.9%
XLI
Communication
-10.1%
XLC
Technology
-14.1%
XLK
| Sleeve | From high | 1d | 1w | 1m | YTD | 1y | vs S&P 1y | vs 200d | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TechnologyXLK | -14.1% | -0.4% | +6.9% | -8.8% | +20.6% | +18.5% | +7.5% | +1.7% | 42.3 |
| CommunicationXLC | -10.1% | -0.6% | +3.5% | -2.5% | -8.3% | -5.4% | -16.4% | -3.9% | 53.7 |
| IndustrialsXLI | -8.9% | -0.6% | +4.6% | +1.8% | +9.6% | +10.2% | -0.8% | -2.0% | 53.0 |
| UtilitiesXLU | -7.7% | +0.6% | +1.8% | +5.6% | +3.2% | -1.8% | -12.8% | -0.6% | 66.0 |
| EnergyXLE | -7.6% | +2.1% | +5.0% | -4.3% | +44.7% | +41.4% | +30.4% | +8.9% | 48.3 |
| DiscretionaryXLY | -3.4% | -0.6% | +2.3% | +7.9% | +0.7% | +0.4% | -10.6% | +4.2% | 60.7 |
| Real estateXLRE | -3.2% | -0.1% | +0.6% | +7.4% | +10.4% | +6.8% | -4.2% | +2.5% | 63.0 |
| MaterialsXLB | -2.4% | -0.8% | +0.6% | +5.9% | +16.0% | +20.2% | +9.2% | +2.7% | 55.5 |
| FinancialsXLF | -1.3% | -0.4% | +1.6% | +7.2% | +6.7% | +9.8% | -1.2% | +8.4% | 61.0 |
| StaplesXLP | -0.7% | -0.2% | +0.1% | +6.1% | +17.5% | +17.9% | +6.9% | +7.6% | 62.4 |
| Health careXLV | -0.7% | -0.3% | +1.9% | +8.3% | +21.7% | +25.0% | +14.0% | +17.7% | 66.9 |
Koyfin / YCharts markets snapshot cousin
Cross-asset, one tape
Stocks, duration, credit, gold, oil, the dollar, bitcoin. One-day through one-year. The world board still holds the 36-month Pearson.
| Sleeve | From high | 1d | 1w | 1m | YTD | 1y | vs S&P 1y | vs 200d | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500SPY | -2.7% | -0.2% | +3.4% | -1.5% | +11.2% | +11.0% | 0.0% | +3.6% | 49.0 |
| Nasdaq 100QQQ | -9.4% | -0.3% | +6.4% | -5.6% | +12.1% | +10.7% | -0.3% | +0.9% | 45.4 |
| Russell 2000IWM | -8.5% | -1.3% | +3.1% | +2.9% | +13.5% | +14.4% | +3.3% | -0.0% | 49.7 |
| Intl developedEFA | -4.3% | -0.5% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +8.4% | +8.5% | -2.6% | +0.7% | 50.7 |
| EmergingEEM | -14.3% | -1.6% | +5.2% | -5.2% | +11.6% | +9.9% | -1.1% | -4.6% | 44.0 |
| Long bondsTLT | -12.0% | -1.3% | -2.5% | +1.3% | -8.3% | -11.2% | -22.2% | -5.3% | 42.3 |
| High yieldHYG | -5.1% | -0.4% | -0.3% | +0.3% | -4.4% | -4.5% | -15.5% | -2.9% | 44.7 |
| GoldGLD | -28.3% | -2.6% | -5.3% | -5.4% | -10.3% | -6.4% | -17.4% | -13.1% | 37.7 |
| OilUSO | -14.0% | +3.1% | -1.6% | -5.1% | +110.8% | +100.5% | +89.5% | +14.5% | 42.5 |
| DollarUUP | 0.0% | +0.2% | +1.7% | +1.0% | +8.8% | +4.5% | -6.5% | +5.0% | 67.1 |
| BitcoinBTC-USD | -17.5% | -3.3% | -5.6% | -12.1% | -18.3% | +0.9% | -10.1% | -2.2% | 30.2 |
| T-billsBIL | -0.2% | 0.0% | +0.1% | -0.0% | +0.1% | -0.0% | -11.1% | -0.0% | 46.3 |
S&P 500
-2.7%
from 52w high
Nasdaq 100
-9.4%
from 52w high
Russell 2000
-8.5%
from 52w high
Bitcoin 1y
+0.9%
BTC-USD
Koyfin style box cousin · AQR / JPM Guide factors
Value, growth, small, and the ballast
Twelve-month relative strength versus the S&P. Magnificent 7 is MAGS when Yahoo has it. Equal-weight is the concentration photograph.
| Sleeve | From high | 1d | 1w | 1m | YTD | 1y | vs S&P 1y | vs 200d | RSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ValueIWD | -0.7% | -0.1% | +2.0% | +3.7% | +25.3% | +27.2% | +16.2% | +9.8% | 61.0 |
| Equal-weightRSP | -0.8% | -0.5% | +2.2% | +4.5% | +15.7% | +16.8% | +5.8% | +6.1% | 58.3 |
| QualityQUAL | -1.4% | -0.4% | +2.5% | -0.6% | +13.1% | +14.3% | +3.3% | +5.2% | 52.1 |
| Min volUSMV | -0.2% | +0.0% | +2.5% | +3.7% | +10.8% | +10.6% | -0.4% | +7.1% | 61.8 |
| MomentumMTUM | -19.4% | +0.4% | +11.1% | -8.8% | +11.1% | +10.5% | -0.5% | -4.3% | 44.6 |
| EmergingEEM | -14.3% | -1.6% | +5.2% | -5.2% | +11.6% | +9.9% | -1.1% | -4.6% | 44.0 |
| Intl developedEFA | -4.3% | -0.5% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +8.4% | +8.5% | -2.6% | +0.7% | 50.7 |
| Magnificent 7MAGS | -7.6% | -0.4% | +2.7% | -5.8% | +4.0% | +2.0% | -9.0% | +3.2% | 44.2 |
| T-billsBIL | -0.2% | 0.0% | +0.1% | -0.0% | +0.1% | -0.0% | -11.1% | -0.0% | 46.3 |
| GrowthIWF | -10.1% | -0.4% | +5.2% | -6.6% | -1.9% | -3.4% | -14.4% | -2.7% | 43.2 |
| High yieldHYG | -5.1% | -0.4% | -0.3% | +0.3% | -4.4% | -4.5% | -15.5% | -2.9% | 44.7 |
| GoldGLD | -28.3% | -2.6% | -5.3% | -5.4% | -10.3% | -6.4% | -17.4% | -13.1% | 37.7 |
| Long bondsTLT | -12.0% | -1.3% | -2.5% | +1.3% | -8.3% | -11.2% | -22.2% | -5.3% | 42.3 |
Value − growth
AQR / Fama-French cousin. Negative is a growth tape.
+30.6%
Small − large
Russell versus the S&P. Confirmation, not a size ticket.
+3.3%
Equal − cap
The concentration photograph. MAGS is the other side.
+5.8%
EAFE − S&P
Home bias live. Dual momentum uses the same 12 months.
-2.6%
EM − S&P
Emerging versus the S&P. A dollar and China cousin.
-1.1%
Gold − S&P
Haven relative strength. 2022 gold was noisy ballast.
-17.4%
Junk − long bonds
Credit versus duration. Both can sell.
+6.7%
Oil − dollar
Commodity versus DXY cousin. A second clock for XLE.
+96.0%
Callan periodic table cousin · JPM Guide to the Markets
The returns quilt
Callan periodic table cousin / JPM Guide page 6. Eight public sleeves, calendar years ranked best to worst. Current year is year-to-date, not a full print. CPI-deflated is the other toggle — brutal in 2022 and the 1970s. Last year’s winner is not this year’s ticket.
| Year | Best | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | US small +19.7% | US large +9.6% | Emerging +8.8% | Gold +8.0% | High yield +7.4% | REITs +3.5% | Long bonds -1.2% | Intl -1.7% |
| 2017 | Emerging +34.6% | Intl +21.8% | US large +19.4% | US small +13.1% | Gold +12.8% | Long bonds +6.5% | High yield +0.8% | REITs +0.6% |
| 2018 | Gold -1.9% | Long bonds -4.2% | US large -6.4% | High yield -7.1% | REITs -10.1% | US small -12.2% | Intl -16.4% | Emerging -17.1% |
| 2019 | US large +28.8% | REITs +24.4% | US small +23.7% | Intl +18.1% | Gold +17.9% | Emerging +14.9% | Long bonds +11.5% | High yield +8.4% |
| 2020 | Gold +24.8% | US small +18.3% | Long bonds +16.4% | US large +16.2% | Emerging +15.2% | Intl +5.1% | High yield -0.7% | REITs -8.5% |
| 2021 | REITs +36.6% | US large +27.0% | US small +13.5% | Intl +7.8% | High yield -0.3% | Gold -4.2% | Emerging -5.5% | Long bonds -6.1% |
| 2022 | Gold -0.8% | High yield -15.4% | Intl -16.6% | US large -19.5% | US small -21.6% | Emerging -22.4% | REITs -28.9% | Long bonds -32.8% |
| 2023 | US large +24.3% | US small +15.1% | Intl +14.8% | Gold +12.7% | REITs +7.1% | Emerging +6.1% | High yield +5.1% | Long bonds -0.7% |
| 2024 | Gold +26.7% | US large +23.3% | US small +10.1% | Emerging +4.0% | High yield +1.6% | REITs +0.8% | Intl +0.4% | Long bonds -11.7% |
| 2025 | Gold +63.7% | Emerging +30.8% | Intl +27.0% | US large +16.4% | US small +11.4% | High yield +2.5% | Long bonds -0.2% | REITs -0.7% |
| 2026 YTD | US small +13.5% | Emerging +11.6% | US large +11.2% | REITs +9.5% | Intl +8.4% | High yield -4.4% | Long bonds -8.3% | Gold -10.3% |
StockCharts RRG cousin · relative rotation
Who is leading, who is fading
2 of 11 sectors sit in Leading. JdK-style relative strength: 10-week smoothed sector/S&P, 10-week rate of change centered on 100, four-week momentum of that ratio. StockCharts sells the scatter. This desk names the room and stops. Rotation is a photograph, not a ticket.
Weak, momentum turning
Improving
Discretionary · Materials · Real estate · Utilities
Strong and getting stronger
Leading
Health care · Staples
Weak and getting weaker
Lagging
Communication · Financials · Industrials
Strong, momentum fading
Weakening
Technology · Energy
Growth × inflation rooms · Hedgeye cousin on FRED
Reflation
Growth impulse is industrial production year-over-year, three-month change. Inflation impulse is CPI the same way. Atlanta GDPNow 3.5%. Reflation is the current room. Photographs below are overlapping monthly medians after that room — not a ticket.
IP YoY
+2.3%
3m Δ 0.8 pt
CPI YoY
+3.7%
3m Δ 0.3 pt
GDPNow
3.5%
Atlanta Fed
Room
Reflation
impulse, not level
Growth up · inflation down
Goldilocks
n=90 months
- S&P 3m
- +3.5%
- S&P 1y
- +13.5%
- TLT 1y
- -0.9%
- Gold 1y
- +12.3%
Growth up · inflation up · now
Reflation
n=106 months
- S&P 3m
- +2.6%
- S&P 1y
- +13.1%
- TLT 1y
- -0.7%
- Gold 1y
- +4.3%
Growth down · inflation up
Stagflation
n=94 months
- S&P 3m
- +1.2%
- S&P 1y
- +7.5%
- TLT 1y
- +2.8%
- Gold 1y
- +7.5%
Growth down · inflation down
Deflation
n=114 months
- S&P 3m
- +3.8%
- S&P 1y
- +13.0%
- TLT 1y
- -1.0%
- Gold 1y
- +16.8%
Sentimentrader TCTM cousin · Allocate Smartly dual momentum
Mixed-on · 5 of 7
5 of 7 trend gates are on. Mixed-on. This is a Sentimentrader / Allocate Smartly cousin on public ETFs — a census, not a model you copy with size.
S&P vs 200-day
+3.6%
Allocate Smartly / PTJ cousin. A risk switch, not a religion.
S&P vs 10-month
3.2%
Meb Faber tactical. Monthly last versus a 10-month average.
Equal-weight vs 50-day
+3.0%
RSP participation. Narrow tape fails this while SPY still prints green.
Russell vs 50-day
-0.7%
Small-cap confirmation. Sentimentrader breadth cousin.
Junk vs 50-day
-0.7%
HYG is the credit fuse. Price, not OAS. A second clock.
Absolute momentum
+11.0% 1y
12-month S&P above zero. Dual-momentum first gate.
S&P vs EAFE, 12m
+2.5 pt
Gary Antonacci relative momentum. Home bias is the other photograph.
Vanguard / JPM 60/40 cousin · 2022 scar · 36-month fuse
Sixty-forty is ballast, not a hedge
60/40 monthly rebalance, SPY and TLT from 2002-08. 2022 is the scar: stocks and duration both sold. A 60/40 is ballast, not a hedge. Past photographs are not a ticket. 36-month SPY/TLT correlation is the 2022 fuse — when it flipped positive, 60/40 stopped being ballast. CPI-deflated path is the other toggle.
60/40 CAGR
5.8%
24.3y
S&P CAGR
9.1%
same window
60/40 max DD
-31.3%
peak to trough
2022 60/40
-24.7%
S&P -19.5%
S&P max DD
-52.2%
same window
2022 S&P
-19.5%
calendar
2022 TLT
-32.8%
duration sold too
SPY/TLT 36m corr
+1.1
0.32
2022 peak 0.15
JPM Guide / Schwab missing-days cousin · Vanguard lump vs DCA
Stay invested is the expensive chart they sell
SPY total-price path from 1993-03-01. Missing the ten best sessions is how timing taxes a long tape. Lump sum beat a 12-month DCA in 76% of rolling years. Past photographs are not a ticket.
Stay invested
8.8%
33.7y CAGR
Miss 10 best
5.8%
-61.3%
Miss 20 best
3.4%
-82.1%
Miss 10 worst
12.7%
perfect timing cousin
Lump vs DCA
76%
median edge +5.2%
$10k stay
$170,735
from 1993
$10k miss 10
$66,025
best days skipped
Nov–Apr
+3.7%
best six months avg
May–Oct
+2.2%
sell-in-May cousin
JPM Guide best / worst rolling cousin
The range they print once a quarter
Every rolling 1 / 5 / 10-year window on SPY daily. Five- and ten-year are annualized. Now versus the best and the worst is the honest range — not a forecast.
1 year
+508.9%
now
- Best
- +533.1%
- Worst
- +100.8%
n=155
5 years
—
now
- Best
- —
- Worst
- —
n=0
10 years
—
now
- Best
- —
- Worst
- —
n=0
Sentimentrader / Bespoke seasonality cousin
Twelve months, one S&P
Average monthly total-price change on SPY since 1993. September is the scar. This is not a sell-in-May ticket. The presidential cycle still sits on the crash desk.
Jan
+0.8%
61% up · n=33
Feb
-0.0%
52% up · n=33
Mar
+0.6%
59% up · n=34
Apr
+2.0%
74% up · n=34
May
+1.2%
71% up · n=34
Jun
0.0%
53% up · n=34
Jul
+1.4%
65% up · n=34
Aug
+0.1%
65% up · n=34
Sep
-0.9%
50% up · n=34
Oct
+1.6%
62% up · n=34
Nov · now
+2.4%
79% up · n=34
Dec
+0.5%
64% up · n=33
After corrections · When it happens · Portfolio stress · Method
Yahoo daily 2y on SPDR sectors, style ETFs, MAGS, EFA, EEM, HYG, TLT, GLD, BIL, USO, UUP, BTC-USD. SPY max daily for missing-days, lump/DCA, rolling windows, the quilt’s US-large sleeve, 60/40, tactical NAV, and month seasonality. TLT / GLD max monthly for the quad and 60/40 duration/gold. IWM / EFA / EEM / HYG / VNQ max monthly for the quilt and dual-momentum NAV. FRED INDPRO, CPIAUCSL, GDPNOW, TB3MS. RSI Wilder 14. 52-week high is 252 sessions. Yahoo ^GSPC max/1mo is not used — that print downsamples to quarterly. CPI-deflated quilt and 60/40 use CPIAUCSL. Cousins: Bespoke Daily Sector Snapshot, Finviz map, Callan periodic table, Koyfin style box, Hedgeye quad, StockCharts RRG, Sentimentrader TCTM, Allocate Smartly dual momentum, Meb Faber 10-month, JPM Guide / Schwab missing best days, Vanguard lump vs DCA and 60/40. · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW