Macro desk
The photographs the overlay is missing
CPI YoY 3.7%. Core PCE 3.1%. GDPNow 3.5%. Philly Fed 20.9. Inflation, nowcast, factory surveys, and the Conference Board rooms. A peak is not called.
Now
Live prints · FRED
What the cycle is doing
CPI YoY 3.7%. Core PCE 3.1%. GDPNow 3.5%. Philly Fed 20.9. Inflation, nowcast, factory surveys, and the Conference Board rooms. A peak is not called.
Core CPI
-1.2
+2.6%
ex food energy
Core PCE
-0.7
+3.1%
Fed target
BEA GDP
+1.3
+3.4%
SAAR q/q
Jobless
-1.3
4.1%
U-3
OECD CLI
-0.4
101.00
100 = trend
Inflation
Headline · core · PCE · PPI
The inflation stack
The Fed watches core PCE. Markets watch CPI. PPI is the pipeline. 2% is a reference, not a trade.
Window · inflation · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
CPI YoY
3.72%
+1.67% in window
Core CPI YoY
2.57%
+0.37% in window
PCE YoY
3.65%
+1.99% in window
Core PCE YoY
3.12%
+1.35% in window
PPI final demand YoY
6.35%
+4.71% in window
Michigan sentiment
48.1
-50.1 in window
Components
BLS NSA · JPM GTM cousin
Inflation components
Contribution to year-over-year headline CPI, non-seasonally adjusted. Bars are BLS relative importance times each sleeve’s twelve-month rate. Residual is dining, recreation, and other services. Not FactSet. A peak is not called.
| Contributors to headline CPI | 50yr avg. | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| Core CPI | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
| Headline PCE deflator | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| Core PCE deflator | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% |
Headline NSA
3.7%
Sep 2026
Energy
1.3%
pp of CPI
Food at home
0.2%
pp of CPI
Shelter
1.1%
pp of CPI
Core goods
0.1%
pp of CPI
Dining / other
0.8%
residual
Window · CPI components · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Nowcast
Atlanta Fed vs BEA
GDPNow against the print
GDPNow is a running nowcast of the current quarter. The BEA bar is the last published SAAR. They are not the same object.
GDPNow
+3.5%
this quarter
BEA GDP
+3.4%
last print
Payrolls YoY
-4.8
+0.6%
coincident
M2 YoY
-6.9
+5.7%
money stock
Window · growth · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Factory
Philly Fed · Empire State
Zero is the line
ISM NAPM 404s on FRED. These are the public cousins: Philadelphia Fed and Empire State current activity. Above 0, factories say they are expanding. Below 0, contracting.
Philly Fed
-5.8
20.9
0 = expansion
Empire State
-10.3
25.5
NY Fed
Permits YoY
-27.9
-3.2%
housing lead
10y − 3m
-0.6
0.68 pp
curve
Window · factory surveys · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Anatomy
Conference Board rooms · public cousins
Leading, coincident, lagging
MacroMicro and the Conference Board split the cycle into three rooms. This desk uses public cousins, not the official LEI. Lights are photographs.
Leading
- OECD CLI100 = trend101.00
- 10y − 3minverted is a photograph0.68 pp
- Philly Fed0 = expansion20.9
- Permits, YoYhousing lead-3.2%
- Michiganconsumer sentiment48.1
Coincident
- GDPNowAtlanta Fed SAAR+3.5%
- Payrolls, YoYnonfarm+0.6%
- ParticipationCIVPART61.9%
- JOLTS openingsthousands on FRED7.5m
Lagging
- UnemploymentU-34.1%
- Core PCE, YoYFed target 2%+3.1%
- Fed fundspolicy rate3.88%
Labor extras
Participation · saving · earnings · openings
The labor photographs Sahm does not hold
Sahm and claims sit on the crash desk. This page holds participation, the saving rate, average hourly earnings, and JOLTS openings.
Participation
+0.1
61.9%
CIVPART
Saving rate
-4.9
3.8%
PSAVERT
AHE YoY
-1.2
+3.1%
hourly earnings
JOLTS openings
-2796
7.5m
nonfarm
Window · labor extras · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
Participation
61.9%
-0.8% in window
Personal saving
3.8%
-1.2% in window
Average hourly earnings YoY
3.12%
+0.43% in window
JOLTS openings (000s)
7,523
+1,559 in window
Named names
Magnificent Seven · vs SPY
The names that carry the tape
Leader YTD: Apple +30.9%. Laggard: Tesla -13.2%. Equal-weight Mag 7 +2.9% vs S&P +11.2%. 252-session average pairwise correlation 0.26 · Apple vs rest 0.12. 1 of 7 beat the S&P on 1y. Named names are not a ticket. A peak is not called.
Leader, YTD
+30.9%
Apple
Laggard, YTD
-13.2%
Tesla
Mag 7 vs S&P
-8.3%
equal-weight YTD
Beat the S&P, 1y
1/7
named names
Apple vs rest
-0.2
0.12
252-session Pearson
AppleAAPL
+173.8
+30.9%
YTD · vs S&P +18.2%
AmazonAMZN
+220.3
+16.6%
YTD · vs S&P -3.0%
MicrosoftMSFT
+118.3
+8.3%
YTD · vs S&P -8.1%
AlphabetGOOGL
+239.6
-4.3%
YTD · vs S&P -8.2%
MetaMETA
+416.9
-5.8%
YTD · vs S&P -11.8%
NVIDIANVDA
+1,019.7
-12.3%
YTD · vs S&P -26.3%
TeslaTSLA
+216.9
-13.2%
YTD · vs S&P -22.2%
Window · Mag 7 vs S&P, indexed 100 · 10Y · 2016-11-12 → 2026-11-12
| Name | From high | 1d | 1m | 3m | YTD | 1y | vs S&P 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIANVDA | -31.6% | -5.8% | -26.1% | -27.3% | -12.3% | -15.3% | -26.3% |
| AppleAAPL | 0.0% | +0.0% | +3.7% | +16.3% | +30.9% | +29.2% | +18.2% |
| MicrosoftMSFT | -5.8% | +0.5% | -1.9% | +5.7% | +8.3% | +2.9% | -8.1% |
| AmazonAMZN | -5.3% | +1.1% | +5.9% | +2.4% | +16.6% | +8.0% | -3.0% |
| AlphabetGOOGL | -25.6% | +2.1% | -13.8% | -13.4% | -4.3% | +2.9% | -8.2% |
| MetaMETA | -20.0% | -1.1% | -15.7% | +5.5% | -5.8% | -0.8% | -11.8% |
| TeslaTSLA | -20.3% | -0.1% | +6.3% | +14.1% | -13.2% | -11.2% | -22.2% |
| S&P 500SPY | -2.7% | -0.2% | -1.5% | -2.3% | +11.2% | +11.0% | — |
| Nasdaq 100QQQ | -9.4% | -0.3% | -5.6% | -5.9% | +12.1% | +10.7% | -0.3% |
| Russell 2000IWM | -8.5% | -1.3% | +2.9% | -8.5% | +13.5% | +14.4% | +3.3% |
| Mag 7 ETFMAGS | -7.6% | -0.4% | -5.8% | +0.5% | +4.0% | +2.0% | -9.0% |
FRED · CPI, PCE, PPI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Philly Fed, Empire State, JOLTS, OECD CLI · BLS NSA CPI components × December relative importance (weights stay until BLS posts the next December) · tape date 12 Nov 2026 · COMPILED JUST NOW