29 Aug 2026Bubble

Investor school

Six names. Six books. One tape.

Graham wants a discount to assets. Buffett wants quality without paying 41 CAPE. Lynch needs the growth to be real. Templeton wants the hated sleeve. Macro wants the fiscal residual. Your book is whichever of those you can actually hold.

Currently pinned

Your book

Pick a sleeve. Sit on this continuum. Do not sit on 41 CAPE.

Bubble is a map, not a trade. Size for being wrong.

Investor-school map— what each name would actually own in 2026

Tap a school to pin it. The mosaic, the finding, and this week's book follow. Stored on this device.

The finding

Closest analog is 2021, not a crash timer. CAPE − TIPS is +0.05 pts.

The mosaic rhymes 79/100 with 2021. Claim years 100 — 1999 claimed 62. Quiet tail 10.4. Breadth of one 66 — seven names wearing an S&P jersey. If CAPE mean-reverts to 22, the S&P is -48% — 27 years of this starting yield to heal it. Mag 7 own 38% of cap and 30% of earnings. The open sleeve is Templeton. Buffett's category is still cash.

Why the map is relative

If US large is priced for a lost decade of real returns, the interesting question is not "when does it break" — it is "who is offering a better starting yield." That is why GMO still prefers EM value and Japan deep value, why Berkshire still holds a third of itself in bills, and why CCC is already leaking while BB trades like 2017.

Short volatility does not appear on the pantheon because it is a wage, not a school. It pays rent until the one month it takes the house. Pin a school — the scoreboard mosaic and the finding follow.